Re: Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol)

[Owen DeLong <owen () delong com>]

On Jun 6, 2011, at 4:41 PM, Matthew Petach wrote:

> On Mon, Jun 6, 2011 at 2:36 PM, Owen DeLong <owen () delong com> wrote:
> > On Jun 6, 2011, at 2:23 PM, Mark Andrews wrote:
> ...
> > > IPv4 will never reach those figures.  IPv6 isn't preferenced enough for
> > > that to happen and IPv6-only sites have methods of reaching IPv4 only
> > > sites (DS-Lite, NAT64/DNS64).
> >
> > I think you'll be surprised over time. Given the tendency of the internet
> > to nearly double in size every 2 years or so, it only takes 7 cycles (about
> > 15 years) for the existing network to become a single-digit percentage
> > of the future network.
> >
> > Owen
>
> Hm.  With roughly 1B people on the internet today[0], 7 cycles of
> doubling would mean that in 15 years, we'd have 128B people
> on the internet?
Ah, but, today, we don't really have 1B people on the internet, we
have about 10,000,000 people on the internet and about
990,000,000 people behind NAT boxes, so, in 7 cycles of doubling
we'll be at 1,280,000,000 people on the internet. ;-)

> I strongly suspect the historical growth curve will *not* continue
> at that pace.

Likely, but, I couldn't resist pointing out the reality above anyway.

Even without the growth curves continuing, the IPv4 internet will
become a relatively small fraction of the total internet in about 15
years.

Owen