Re: IP4 Space

[Christopher LILJENSTOLPE <cdl () asgaard org>]

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Greetings Owen,

        The only problem is that there will be a number of devices that the eyeballs like that won't ever see an IPv6 
packet (specifically thinking about the CE devices in the home).  As such, it won't be IPv6 only, it will be 
dual-stack.  Eventually we won't be able to give that eyeball's NAT box a unique address, then the proliferation of 
state begins....

        Chris

On 27 Mar 2010, at 08.42 , Owen DeLong wrote:

> Dave,
>       It's clear we disagree about what will happen in an obviously
> unpredictable future. I think that eyeball networks will deploy IPv6
> rapidly due to the high costs of attempting to continue to hack IPv4.
> You believe that something else will happen.  In time, we will see
> which of us turns out to be more correct.  We can look at it in
> hindsight over drinks in about 5 years or so.
>
> Owen
>
> On Mar 26, 2010, at 1:32 PM, Dave Israel wrote:
>
> > On 3/26/2010 1:31 PM, Owen DeLong wrote:
> > > On Mar 26, 2010, at 8:57 AM, Lamar Owen wrote:
> > >
> > > You should ask your server guy how he plans to talk to your core
> > > stakeholders when they can't get IPv4 any more.
> >
> > Then, at that time, both he and his key stakeholders will experience
> > pain while they both deploy IPv6, or more likely,  his key stakeholders
> > will add another level of NAT-like indirection to give themselves space
> > to expand with the address pool they have.
> >
> > > > At the CxO level, it's all about the money.  Or the lack therof.
> > > How much less money will you have when donors can not reach your
> > > website or have a poor user experience doing so?
> >
> > This assumption is incorrect. "They can't keep nursing IPv4 forever. 
> > Eventually everybody will have to switch to v6.  If you don't, you'll be
> > sorry.  Just wait and see."  That attitude did not force any previous
> > supposed IPv4-killer protocol to be deployed.  The fact is, for the
> > foreseeable future,  his donors will tend to have a better experience
> > over v4 than v6.  He isn't going to be blindsided by the need to deploy
> > v6, and he knows it.  By the time an important v4 host is not reachable
> > via the entire internet (and at full speed), v6 will have been
> > everywhere for years.
> >
> > An address space crisis will not result in v6 deployment from repentant
> > network engineers who did not see the light in time.  An address space
> > crisis will merely result in more hacks to keep v4 running longer.  v6
> > will be deployed slowly by the curious, encouraged by features v6 has
> > that they want and with the assumption that they will still be able to
> > do everything they can do on v4 (either through translation or dual
> > stacking.)  This process can be accelerated by something that v6 can do
> > that v4 can't.  So far, there's nothing that fits that description;
> > everything being done over v6 can also be done over v4. 

- ---
李柯睿
Check my PGP key here:
https://www.asgaard.org/~cdl/cdl.asc

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