RE: Rate of growth on IPv6 not fast enough?

["Frank Bulk - iName.com" <frnkblk () iname com>]

Don't forget the home gateway aspect -- it's a huge gaping hole in the IPv6
deployment strategy for ISPs.  And don't talk to me about Apple's Airport
Extreme.  ISPs want (once the volume of IETF IPv6-related drafts has settled
down) for every router at Wal-mart to include IPv6 support.  If they start
right now and presume that home gateways/routers are replaced every 3 to 5
years, it will be several years before they've covered even 50% of the
homes.

Frank

-----Original Message-----
From: Leo Bicknell [mailto:bicknell () ufp org] 
Sent: Monday, April 19, 2010 9:31 AM
To: nanog () nanog org
Subject: Re: Rate of growth on IPv6 not fast enough?

In a message written on Sun, Apr 18, 2010 at 10:22:25PM -0700, joel jaeggli
wrote:
> Just because the curve doesn't look steep enough now doesn't mean it 
> won't in two years. Human behavior is hard to model and panic hasn't set 
> in yet.

There is also an aspect of this transition I don't think we've seen
before (in networking).  A large percentage of end users are on
technologies (cable modem, dsl, even dial up) who's configuration
is entirely driven out of a provisioning database.

Once the backbone is rolled out, the nameservers, dhcp, and
configuration servers dual-stacked many ISP's could enable IPv6 for
all of their customers overnight with only a few keystrokes.  Now
they won't literally do it that way to save their support folks,
but if the need arises they will be able to push the button quite
quickly.

I suspect the middle part of this S curve is going to be much, much
steeper than anyone is predicting right now.

-- 
       Leo Bicknell - bicknell () ufp org - CCIE 3440
        PGP keys at http://www.ufp.org/~bicknell/