Re: peter lothberg's mother slashdotted

[Stephen Wilcox <steve.wilcox () packetrade com>]

On Fri, Jul 13, 2007 at 07:04:56AM -0400, Robert Blayzor wrote:
> Jeff Kell wrote:
> > If we continue along orders of magnitude, sure it's foreseeable.
> >
> > * 30 years ago, 300 baud was the bomb :-)
> > *              3000 baud was roughly 2400bps days
> > *             30000 baud gets us to ~28.8k
> > *            300000 baud was about 2 ISDN lines (2x128k)
> > *           3000000 baud is about typical cable these days (3m)
>
>
> Well using your logic, then it's partially true that 40G is not any time 
> soon.  Especially considering fiber is in less than 1% of homes.  Lets 
> not forget that all of the above has been established on existing 
> facilities that have been in homes for 30-50+ years.

hmm.. at least here in the UK cable companies built out during the 90s in just a few years covering a large % of the 
population. upgrades in CO technology (DSLAMs etc) seems to occur every 4-5yrs too so I dont think anything radical can 
be considered unachievable if you allow 5-10yrs for rollout


> You say 30 years ago, and lets roughly estimate it's four to five years 
> between those technologies above, which gets us to today.  It's going to 
> take at least another 5 years to consider FTTP "the norm" at say 30M, 
> maybe sooner with technologies with DOCSIS 2.0, etc.  So...
>
> 30M    Is Today +4/5 years
> 300M   Is Today +8/10 years
> 3G     Is Today +12/15 years
> 30G    Is Today +16/20 years

I was thinking about this bandwidth question recently too altho a bit differently.

1991 = 14.4kbps dialup
1994 = 28kbps dialup
1995 = 33kbps
1996 = 56kbps dialup
2000 = 512k dsl
2006 = 10Mb cable/dsl

approximately speaking we increase an order of magnitude every 5 years, so perhaps we can expect:

2010 = 50Mb 
2015 = 500Mb 
2020 = 5Gb
2025 = 50Gb

so our estimates are similar :)

my guess is that wont be achieved with OC768 either.. i dont know if we can go that far with copper but it wouldnt 
surprise me.

Steve


> If it's sooner all the better.  Keeping in mind, installations like 
> Verizon FiOS don't run dedicated strands of glass to each home, they use 
> PON.  So achieving anywhere near 40G on even the existing stuff they're 
> running into homes may not be possible for quite some time...
>
> PS -- baud != bps
>
> -Robert