Where will the NSA be in 5 to 10 years?

[InfoSec News <alerts () infosecnews org>]

http://selil.com/archives/4553

By Sam Liles
Selil.com
October 17, 2013

I’ve been thinking about how the structure of the intelligence community and 
specifically technical collection activities are understood. The departure of 
General Alexander and the current budget fights are policy fulcrum points that 
can be used for change. I have to caveat my comments that follow.  I don’t have 
a lot of experience at NSA, I have very little experience with CyberCom, and 
NSA/DHS paid for my PhD. Whether you think me shill for not being blood thirsty 
calling for the end of the NSA, or not experienced enough for not having served 
at the NSA, the comment and the opinions are free.

So, take everything I say with a grain of salt and let the logic or lack of it 
determine the credibility. I have a few things here that I think people will 
take interest in. I talked about some of this previously here. I think the 
following are the themes we will see in the next five to ten years.

1)  NSA will be half the size it is today.

2)  NSA becomes a contractor free agency.

3)  Elements of NSA working toward national infrastructure security are split 
off.

4)  NSA and CyberCom split

5)  NSA has to invest in privacy preserving security as penance

6)  Individuals may find themselves under congressional investigation

I figure the largest 5 year and out result will be a much smaller NSA. NSA will 
likely be a half to third the size it is today. The primary losses will be in 
contractor staff, hiring freezes, and about a 10 percent reduction in force. 
Nobody I know is talking about this currently. The reduction in force will be 
part of larger federal government reduction in force and will hit the NSA 
lighter than other government entities. There will be great gnashing of teeth, 
but considering how hard the Army and Air Force have already been hit there 
will be little sympathy internally or externally for the agency or intelligence 
community in general.

[...]

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