Fierce cyber war predicted

[InfoSec News <isn () c4i org>]

http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/ptech/03/03/sprj.irq.info.war.ap/index.html

March 3, 2003 

NEW YORK (AP) -- Imagine Iraqi commanders getting misleading text
messages on their cell phones. They appear to contain orders from
Saddam Hussein but are actually sent by the U.S. military in disguise,
directing Iraqi troops to a trap.

Or how about a radar that confuses the Iraqi air defense system by
showing U.S. bombers in the wrong locations, or heading in the wrong
direction?

Although information operations has been a tool of warfare for
centuries, the Internet and other technologies are boosting
capabilities -- and the stakes. Already, the Pentagon has sent
unsolicited e-mails to Iraqi generals, encouraging them to defect.

"Warfare is less and less about pushing men and machines around the
battlefield and more and more about pushing electrons and photons,"  
said Loren Thompson, a defense analyst with the Lexington Institute in
Arlington, Virginia.

Comments hard to come by

The Pentagon has been mostly mum about what it can do and plans.  
Military analysts wouldn't reveal specifics, fearful the Iraqis could
develop countermeasures.

"One thing I can tell you for sure: People who really know about these
programs can't tell you about these programs," said Bruce Berkowitz, a
senior analyst with Rand. But Berkowitz did spell out the goals: Shape
perceptions and get ahead of the enemy's decision-making intelligence
through spying, jamming and deception.

Chris Prosise, a Foundstone Inc. security researcher formerly with the
Air Force's Information Warfare Center, said the U.S. military has the
same tools available to computer hackers. A virus, for instance, can
create "backdoor" openings for later break-ins.

Information operations could also involve steering Iraqis to
less-secure communications channels for easier spying, such as by
destroying the infrastructure required for encryption. That can be
done with bombs, computer attacks or, perhaps, electromagnetic-pulse
weapons, which disable electronics with massive bursts of electricity.

During the Civil War, when signal flags were used, Union forces broke
Confederate coding schemes and diverted the South's troops by planting
bogus messages, Berkowitz said.

And during World War II, Allies fooled Germans by "leaking" battle
plans involving nonexistent troops.

Net helps deception

The Internet makes deception easier. Getting away with it, though, can
be harder. Saddam can check Google for references to an Army division
or read local newspapers reporting on their units' whereabouts.

"These soldiers are still getting haircuts and shopping, and local
merchants are going to report massive drop-offs in sales due to troops
deploying," said John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org, a research
organization.

Sgt. Maj. Lewis Matson, a spokesman for the U.S. Central Command,
would only confirm two previously used "propaganda" methods.

For months, planes have been dropping leaflets over the "no-fly"  
zones, warning Iraqi soldiers not to fire at American aircraft and
stressing Saddam's suppression of the Iraqi people. The 193rd Special
Operations Wing of the Pennsylvania Air National Guard also has been
broadcasting recorded radio messages from EC-130E Commando Solo
aircraft.

One of the six Commando Solos, which can also broadcast television,
has an antenna for retransmitting live satellite feeds, said Senior
Master Sgt. Michael Kovach, an electronics instructor with the 193rd
wing.

Its first use could come in Iraq.

Encouraging surrender

One hypothetical use of such a transmitter could be to encourage
surrender by beaming into Iraq doctored video of Saddam being
captured. Such tactics could backfire, however, if a conflicting
version were to appear via one of the many information sources now
available -- radio, Internet, satellite TV.

Military officials privately acknowledge that they've sent e-mail to
Iraqi generals, encouraging dissent and defections and warning against
following any order to use weapons of mass destruction.

The U.S. Strategic Command, meanwhile, has the Joint Task Force for
Computer Network Operations available for computer attacks. The
National Security Agency also has invested heavily in this area over
the past five years, said intelligence expert and author James
Bamford.

Bill Sweetman, a contributing editor with Jane's International Defense
Review, said the U.S. military benefits from its familiarity with the
Russian computer systems used by Iraqis.

The Chinese-built fiber-optic cables running Iraq's air defenses may
be harder to penetrate than the airwaves, but military hackers can do
much more -- and quietly -- once they are breached, Brookings
Institution fellow Peter Singer said.

Developing guidelines

There has also been talk of disrupting bank accounts through hacking,
though retired Air Force Col. Alan Campen, an editor of four books on
cyberwarfare, warns that doing so could hurt the global financial
system.

"When you're launching a computer attack against somebody, how do you
know you've got them and haven't hurt yourself?" he asked.

President Bush already has signed a secret order to develop guidelines
on launching cyberattacks. Once bombs start dropping, Bamford said,
the military and intelligence communities will likely get all the
authority they want.

"They'll use this whole thing as a big training ground," Bamford said.  
"They'll experiment with everything they've been thinking about for a
long time."




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