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Fwd: [EE CS Colloq] Combining Physical and Statistical Models in Order to Narrow * 4:30PM, Wed Jan 17, 2018 in Gates B03
From: "Dave Farber" <dave () farber net>
Date: Sun, 14 Jan 2018 15:46:58 +0000
---------- Forwarded message --------- From: Dennis Allison <allison () stanford edu> Date: Sun, Jan 14, 2018 at 9:53 AM Subject: [EE CS Colloq] Combining Physical and Statistical Models in Order to Narrow * 4:30PM, Wed Jan 17, 2018 in Gates B03 To: <dave () farber net> Stanford EE Computer Systems Colloquium 4:30 PM, Wednesday, Jan 17, 2018 NEC Auditorium, Gates Computer Science Building Room B3 http://ee380.stanford.edu Combining Physical and Statistical Models in Order to Narrow Uncertainty in Projected of Global Warming Patrick Brown Carnegie Institution for Science at Stanford *About the talk: * A key question in climate science is How much global warming should we expect for a given increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gasses like carbon dioxide? One strategy for addressing this question is to run physical models of the global climate system but these models vary in their estimates of future warming by about a factor of two. Our research has attempted to narrow this range of uncertainty around model-projected future warming and to assess whether the upper or lower end of the model range is more likely. We showed that there are strong statistical relationships between how models simulate fundamental features of the Earth's energy budget over the recent past, and how much warming models simulate in the future. Importantly, we find that models that match observations the best over the recent past, tend to simulate more warming in the future than the average model. Thus, statistically combining information from physical models and observations tells us that we should expect more warming (with smaller uncertainty ranges) than we would expect if we were just looking at physical models in isolation and ignoring observations. *About the speaker: * [image: [speaker photo]] Patrick is a postdoctoral research scientist at the Carnegie Institution for Science at Stanford. He holds a Bachelor's degree in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and a Ph.D. in Earth and Ocean Sciences from Duke University.He has interests in climate modeling, Earth's energy budget, emergent properties of complex systems, chaos, statistics, climate-society interaction and quantifying difficult-to-quantify things. *Contact information:* email: pbrown () carnegiescience edu Twitter: @PatrickTBrown31 *ABOUT THE COLLOQUIUM:* See the Colloquium website, http://ee380.stanford.edu, for scheduled speakers, FAQ, and additional information. Stanford and SCPD students can enroll in EE380 for one unit of credit. Anyone is welcome to attend; talks are webcast live and archived for on-demand viewing over the web. *MAILING LIST INFORMATION:* This announcement is sent to multiple mailing lists. If you are signed up on our private EE380 list you can remove yourself using the widget at the upper left hand corner of the Colloquium web page. Other lists have other management protocols. ------------------------------------------- Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/247/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/247/18849915-ae8fa580 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=18849915&id_secret=18849915-aa268125 Unsubscribe Now: https://www.listbox.com/unsubscribe/?member_id=18849915&id_secret=18849915-32545cb4&post_id=20180114104717:30D854C8-F942-11E7-86D9-99B07B0EA7CA Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
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- Fwd: [EE CS Colloq] Combining Physical and Statistical Models in Order to Narrow * 4:30PM, Wed Jan 17, 2018 in Gates B03 Dave Farber (Jan 14)