Re China's breathtaking transformation into a scientific superpower

["Dave Farber" <dave () farber net>]

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Gregory Aharonian <greg.aharonian () gmail com>
Date: Mon, Jan 22, 2018 at 2:10 PM
Subject: Re: [IP] Re China's breathtaking transformation into a scientific
superpower
To: Dave Farber <dave () farber net>


Dave,

I would like to over one caveat with regards to this new "scientific
superpower" threat.

With regards to technology - the number of scientists/engineers, the number
of papers, the number of patents, etc. - one cannot ignore the issue of
Quantity versus Quality.

For example, there are larger and larger numbers of Chinese patent
applications and patents appearing in the global patent database.
Worry/threat?  Maybe.  My impression is that much like U.S. patent
applications and patents, most of these Chinese filings are of low
quality.  It is a global problem - much of the R&D, and then the best of
the R&D that ends up being patented - is of low quality, usually because it
is duplicating an earlier invention/paper, or is a minor "obvious"
improvement over something that exists.  This is due in part to the
laziness of inventors/patentees in not searching the history of their
technology, and due in part that many fields of science and engineering are
very mature and well published - leaving few holes for new inventions.

So news of more and more Chinese papers and patents means little more to me
than after I slog through the low quality US, European, Japanese, Korean,
etc. papers and patents, I now have to add the Chinese materials to my list.

For example, Mitsubishi Electric received a U.S. patent 9,870,222 - "Air
conditioning system", basically a system for sending an air conditioner the
latest version of its operating software it it is running an older
version.  Geesh, is it time to re-worry about the Japanese "scientific
superpower" threat?  I have to slog through 1000s of such new patents every
week without inducing boredom-brain-coma.  Quality engineering in the
2010s?  Not with this one.

Now what would scare me is if the Chinese government announced a huge
government funded effort to develop mechanisms to raise the quality of
their R&D and patenting.  Or if the Europeans so announced.  Or if the
Americans so announced.  That would be frightening, because there are still
areas of technology ripe for invention with huge political and economic
benefits.  Number one being a cheap way into outer space (and it ain't
SpaceX).  And these breakthroughs are going to require quality R&D (where
quality is not measured by the marketing and publicity departments).

But until such an announcement emphasizing Quality over Quantity, these
latest "foreign science superpower" worries are little more than a good
plot basis for the next edition of "Iron Man".

Regard,

Greg Aharonian
Editor, Internet Patent News Service












On Mon, Jan 22, 2018 at 12:01 PM, Dave Farber <dave () farber net> wrote:

> ---------- Forwarded message ---------
> From: Gene Spafford <spaf () purdue edu>
> Date: Mon, Jan 22, 2018 at 9:54 AM
> Subject: Re: [IP] China's breathtaking transformation into a scientific
> superpower
> To: Dave Farber <dave () farber net>
>
>
>
> This future (although not China specifically) was outlined in the
> “Gathering Storm”* reports by Norm Augustine et al.  back in 2007, and the
> sequel in 2010.  Not only did they predict the loss of US leadership in
> S&T, but the follow-on effects on the economy and more.  Similar to other
> medium-to-long-range studies, political leaders decided not to do anything
> about the recommendations because (1) it involved money, (2) it involved
> scientists, and science is a dirty word to one political segment**, and (3)
> we weren’t in crisis yet.   Instead, we have had political movement in the
> other direction — impugning the integrity and worth of teachers and
> scientists, cutting support for education in K-grey, shunning some of the
> best & brightest who want to immigrate, and make workers in industry
> (steel, coal) out to be the ones who should get the most support of
> government.  We even have the leadership pandering to a segment of the base
> that is seeking to accelerate their religious vision of a world-wide
> apocalypse; this group does not see a need to invest in the future.
>
> Unfortunately, in our current fact-free political environment, the
> underlying problems are likely to intensify.  As noted by the commission,
> once we’ve lost the lead, it will be very if difficult — if even possible —
> to get it back.
>
> * -  (worth reading if you haven’t already)
> Rising Above the Gathering Storm:
> https://www.nap.edu/catalog/11463/rising-above-the-gathering-storm-energizing-and-employing-america-for
> Rising Above the Gathering Storm, Revisited:
> https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12999/rising-above-the-gathering-storm-revisited-rapidly-approaching-category-5
>
> ** -
> Reports are that in the current West Wing, the word “professor” is
> consider a pejorative, and in Cabinet agencies advisory committees are
> being disbanded or restocked only with business people.
>
> On Jan 22, 2018, at 8:05 AM, Dave Farber <dave () farber net> wrote:
>
>
> ---------- Forwarded message ---------
> From: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne () warpspeed com>
> Date: Mon, Jan 22, 2018 at 6:20 AM
> Subject: [Dewayne-Net] China's breathtaking transformation into a
> scientific superpower
> To: Multiple recipients of Dewayne-Net <dewayne-net () warpspeed com>
>
>
> China’s breathtaking transformation into a scientific superpower
> By Robert J. Samuelson
> Jan 21 2018
> <
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/chinas-breathtaking-transformation-into-a-scientific-superpower/2018/01/21/03f883e6-fd44-11e7-8f66-2df0b94bb98a_story.html
> >
>
> The National Science Foundation and the National Science Board have just
> released their biennial “Science & Engineering Indicators,” a voluminous
> document describing the state of American technology. There are facts and
> figures on research and development, innovation and engineers. But the
> report’s main conclusion lies elsewhere: China has become — or is on the
> verge of becoming — a scientific and technical superpower.
>
> We should have expected nothing less. After all, science and technology
> constitute the knowledge base for economically advanced societies and
> military powers, and China aspires to become the world leader in both.
> Still, the actual numbers are breathtaking for the speed with which they’ve
> been realized.
>
> Remember that a quarter-century ago, China’s economy was tiny and its
> high-tech sector barely existed. Since then, here’s what’s happened,
> according to the “Indicators” report:
>
> ● China has become the second- largest R&D spender, accounting for 21
> percent of the world total of nearly $2 trillion in 2015. Only the United
> States, at 26 percent, ranks higher, but if present growth rates continue,
> China will soon become the biggest spender. From 2000 to 2015, Chinese R&D
> outlays grew an average of 18 percent annually, more than four times faster
> than the U.S. rate of 4 percent.
>
> ● There has been an explosion of technical papers by Chinese teams.
> Although the United States and the European Union each produce more studies
> on biomedical subjects, China leads in engineering studies. American papers
> tend to be cited more often than the Chinese papers , suggesting that they
> involve more fundamental research questions, but China is catching up.
>
> ● China has dramatically expanded its technical workforce. From 2000 to
> 2014, the annual number of science and engineering bachelor’s degree
> graduates went from about 359,000 to 1.65 million. Over the same period,
> the comparable number of U.S. graduates went from about 483,000 to 742,000.
>
> Not only has Chinese technology expanded. It has also gotten more
> ambitious. Much of China’s high-tech production once consisted of
> assembling sophisticated components made elsewhere. Now, says the report,
> it’s venturing into demanding areas “such as supercomputers and smaller
> jetliners.”
>
> Of course, there are qualifications. China still lags in patents received.
> Over the past decade, American firms and inventors account for about half
> the U.S. patents annually, and most of the rest go to Europeans and
> Japanese. Recall also that China’s population of 1.4 billion is more than
> four times ours; not surprisingly, it needs more scientists, engineers and
> technicians.
>
> In a sane world — shorn of nationalistic, economic, racial and ethnic
> conflicts — none of this would be particularly alarming. Technology is
> mobile, and gains made in China could be enjoyed elsewhere, and vice versa.
> But in our contentious world, China’s technological prowess is potentially
> threatening, as the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a
> congressional watchdog group, has often pointed out.
>
> One danger is military. If China makes a breakthrough in a crucial
> technology — satellites, missiles, cyberwarfare, artificial intelligence,
> electromagnetic weapons — the result could be a major shift in the
> strategic balance and, possibly, war.
>
> Even if this doesn’t happen, warns the commission, China’s determination
> to dominate new industries such as artificial intelligence,
> telecommunications and computers could lead to economic warfare if China
> maintains subsidies and discriminatory policies to sustain its firms’
> competitive advantage.
>
> [snip]
>
> Dewayne-Net RSS Feed: http://dewaynenet.wordpress.com/feed/
> Twitter: https://twitter.com/wa8dzp
>
>
>
> Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/247/=now>
> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/247/19988453-bcb8aa4d> |
> Modify
> <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;>
> Your Subscription | Unsubscribe Now
> <https://www.listbox.com/unsubscribe/?&&post_id=20180122120203:F5619684-FF95-11E7-ADA0-ACCA2979FBEB>
> <http://www.listbox.com>



-------------------------------------------
Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/247/=now
RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/247/18849915-ae8fa580
Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=18849915&id_secret=18849915-aa268125
Unsubscribe Now: 
https://www.listbox.com/unsubscribe/?member_id=18849915&id_secret=18849915-32545cb4&post_id=20180122143700:9B3FD6FA-FFAB-11E7-A56E-9B2FAF34009B
Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com