Interesting People mailing list archives

In 1995, this astronomer predicted the Internet's greatest failure


From: "Dave Farber" <farber () gmail com>
Date: Sat, 22 Jul 2017 10:11:15 -0400




Begin forwarded message:

From: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne () warpspeed com>
Date: July 22, 2017 at 9:07:24 AM EDT
To: Multiple recipients of Dewayne-Net <dewayne-net () warpspeed com>
Subject: [Dewayne-Net] In 1995, this astronomer predicted the Internet's greatest failure
Reply-To: dewayne-net () warpspeed com

In 1995, this astronomer predicted the Internet’s greatest failure
And, of course, we trolled him for it for decades.
By Rob Howard
Jul 18 2017
<https://medium.com/the-mission/in-1995-this-astronomer-predicted-the-internets-greatest-failure-68a1c3927e46>

Twenty-two years ago, astronomer Clifford Stoll made a huge mistake.He challenged the popular notion that the 
Internet was a force for good, and he was ruthlessly mocked by just about everyone.

On the surface, you can see why his 1995 Newsweek column has been maligned for decades. Some of the problems he 
presented — like the challenge of taking secure online payments in a world before PayPal, and irrelevant search 
results before the days of Google — have been solved, or at the very least we’ve grown accustomed to their remaining 
flaws. That made his article easy fodder for mockery by technology columnists every time an anniversary rolled around.

The problem for the people who chose to troll Stoll, however, is that a lot of his predictions and criticisms of the 
web were spot on. Read this quote from 1995, and tell me it couldn’t be written (and praised) today:

“Your word gets out, leapfrogging editors and publishers. Every voice can be heard cheaply and instantly. The result? 
Every voice is heard. The cacophony more closely resembles citizens band radio, complete with handles, harassment, 
and anonymous threats. When most everyone shouts, few listen.”
This was written in reference to Usenet, an early Internet message board, but could apply to Twitter, Reddit, and 
countless other social platforms today without changing a single character. A few months ago, Ev Williams, the 
founder of Medium and co-founder of Twitter, said almost the exact same thing:

“I thought once everybody could speak freely and exchange information and ideas, the world is automatically going to 
be a better place. I was wrong about that.”
In the same article, Williams told The New York Times: “The Internet is broken.” If only someone had seen this coming.

As a scientist, Stoll had been using forms of the Internet since its inception in the ’70s. He wasn’t off-base in 
calling it a “wasteland of unfiltered data.” He was 20 years ahead of his time.

For all the progress and quality-of-life improvements we’ve seen with the rise of Internet-enabled technology, the 
Achilles’ heel is that we’re now universally plagued by information overload. That’s made us more anxious, more 
angry, more ideologically divided, and more confused about reality than ever before. Stoll dismisses the notion that 
“the freedom of digital networks will make government more democratic,” realizing that unfiltered, unlimited 
information leads not to a more knowledgeable and thoughtful populace, but to a cultural addiction to non-stop 
digital stimulation.

[snip]

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