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War clouds on the Korean peninsula: What would we do if…?
From: "Dave Farber" <farber () gmail com>
Date: Fri, 11 Aug 2017 20:00:15 -0400
Begin forwarded message:
From: Herb Lin <herblin () stanford edu> Date: August 11, 2017 at 7:09:53 PM EDT To: Dave Farber <dave () farber net>, "ip () listbox com" <ip () listbox com> Subject: War clouds on the Korean peninsula: What would we do if…? http://thebulletin.org/war-clouds-korean-peninsula-what-would-we-do-if%E2%80%A611016 ...it’s worth considering what the United States and/or South Korea might do under a variety of scenarios. It’s pretty clear that if North Korea actually launches a nuclear-tipped missile that explodes and causes large-scale casualties in Japan, South Korea, the United States, or anywhere else, nuclear retaliation against North Korea is likely. And it is inconceivable that plans for nuclear strikes against North Korean targets have not already been developed. More difficult to predict are the outcomes in a number of scenarios that are still provocative and escalatory but less serious than those resulting in large-scale casualties. Consider the following: Carrying out the threat recently issued by North Korea to launch several (presumably unarmed) missiles into waters near Guam, but in international waters. (Assume that after launch, radar tracks of these missiles indicate that they will miss Guam by dozens of miles.) A demonstration use of nuclear weapons by North Korea, in which a nuclear-tipped missile is launched into the Pacific Ocean and detonates near sea level far from any land mass, causing no casualties. The same scenario as above, except that in this variant, a small civilian ship is by chance close enough to the detonation to be seriously damaged, with a few deaths resulting. The use of a few shorter-range missiles carrying conventional warheads against the territory of South Korea or Japan, coupled with an explicit threat to launch nuclear weapons if the United States responds militarily. ... Herb Lin Sent from my Verizon 4G LTE smartphone
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- War clouds on the Korean peninsula: What would we do if…? Dave Farber (Aug 11)