Re: The Changing Nature of Employment in the Great Recession

[Dave Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

> From: Rahul Tongia <tongia () cmu edu>
> Date: January 10, 2010 11:29:48 AM EST
> To: David Farber <dave () farber net>, hlin () nas edu
> Cc: ip <ip () v2 listbox com>
> Subject: Re: [IP] Re: The Changing Nature of Employment in the Great  
> Recession
> Reply-To: tongia () cmu edu

> Hi Dave, Herb,
>
> A few reactions (sitting in India as I type).
>
> The loss of "simple" labor was first part of the industrial  
> revolution.  That stayed at home for a long while. Indeed, the  
> British used India as raw material for their industrial might.
>
> What happened was globalization, and labor type jobs went overseas,  
> and the finished products came back.  Mind you, the finished  
> products came back cheaper than ever before. This is why we have so  
> much STUFF cheaply available, esp. in the US, but even worldwide.
>
> Now, so-called knowledge jobs are facing the same global pressures.  
> There is someone in India or Ghana or Philippines or China willing  
> to do "menial" knowledge work for a lot less. Some of that involves  
> stuff that can required specialized skills or advanced degrees  
> (e.g., reading an X-ray).
>
> Here are some personal thoughts/predictions:
>
> 1) The myth/hype/hope over knowledge jobs will hit reality when  
> people come to realize these are just jobs.   Quite fungible after  
> we work out a few kinks and legalities.
> 2) There is certainly some value to being a knowledge leader (e.g.,  
> the software industry was mostly US), but there are limits to this
> 3) At some point, the greatest competition to knowledge jobs will  
> come from computers and algorithms [that would be accelerated if we  
> SIMPLIFIED many processes/procedures].  In such a future, I  
> sincerely hope we have space for human intervention and value-based  
> judgments.
>
> Rahul
>
> On Sun, Jan 10, 2010 at 9:24 PM, David Farber <dave () farber net> wrote:
>
>
> Begin forwarded message:
>
> From: "Lin, Herb" <HLin () nas edu>
> Date: January 9, 2010 9:28:51 PM EST
> To: <dave () farber net>, "ip" <ip () v2 listbox com>
> Subject: RE: [IP] : The Changing Nature of Employment in the Great  
> Recession
>
> This thread is important, and i'd be curious about the reaction of  
> the IP list to the following query.
>
> Once upon a time, individuals with relatively low education and/or  
> intelligence levels could find jobs that earned an income sufficient  
> to support a middle class life style.. These jobs varied in nature,  
> but the assembly line worker is the canonical example of such a  
> job.  But as we shift towards a more information and knowledge-based  
> economy, there are fewer of these jobs - and an increasing  
> polarization of the job market into high-skill/high-wage jobs and  
> low-skill/low wage jobs.  Personal service jobs, of which there will  
> be an increasing number in the future, are the best example -- and  
> they are relatively low paying jobs.
>
> So - given the fact that 50% of the population has “intelligence”  
> below the median (however you define intelligence), what's going to  
> be the wage-equivalent job of the assembly line job in the informati 
> on age?
>
> Thoughts welcome.
>
> herb
>
>
>
> From: Dave Farber [mailto:dave () farber net]
> Sent: Saturday, January 09, 2010 2:03 PM
> To: ip
> Subject: [IP] : The Changing Nature of Employment in the Great  
> Recession
>
>
>
>
>
> Begin forwarded message:
>
> > From: Jay Fenello <Jay () bizplacements com>
> > Date: January 9, 2010 11:41:02 AM EST
> > To: dave () farber net
> > Subject: The Changing Nature of Employment in the Great Recession
>
> > Hi Dave,
> >
> > For IP, if you like.
> >
> > The Changing Nature of Employment in the Great Recession
> >
> > I recently saw the Great Depression film "The Grapes of Wrath," and  
> > while I had seen it before, this time I was reminded of what's  
> > going on in employment today.  The movie starts off with Henry  
> > Fonda returning to his family farm after having been away for a few  
> > years, only to find his home abandoned.  He soon learns that his  
> > family, as well as all of his Oklahoma neighbors, have been evicted  
> > and are leaving for the promise of jobs in California.
> >
> > We then learn that the families in Oklahoma have been hit with a  
> > perfect storm.  Drought, low farm prices, and the displacement  
> > caused by farm automation had resulted in bankruptcy and  
> > foreclosure for millions of farmers.  It was reported that one man  
> > with a tractor could replace 10-15 family farms, and over 100 farm  
> > workers.
> >
> > Similarities to the Great Recession
> >
> > Consider the tractor for a moment.  The gasoline powered tractor  
> > first appeared way back in 1892.  However, it didn't really catch  
> > on until the tractor was mass produced in the 1910's.  Then, as  
> > tractor prices came down, its use on the farm started to take  
> > off.   The result was an increase in farm productivity, falling  
> > prices for farm products, and a loss of jobs for millions of  
> > farmers.  This displacement peaked 20 years later, during the Great  
> > Depression.
> >
> > Today, we can see a similar process at work with computer  
> > technology and the Internet.  The first personal computer came on  
> > the scene way back in the late 1970's.  Its adoption didn't really  
> > take off until the 1980's, eventually resulting in the computer  
> > being pervasive enough to enable the explosion of the Internet in  
> > the 1990's.
> >
> > Along the way, we've seen computers and the Internet displace  
> > people in selective industries.  Some of the first to feel the pain  
> > were the music industry, followed by the travel industry,  
> > newspapers and now the television networks.   We have also seen  
> > many roles within companies evaporate as well.  Factory workers  
> > were the first to go, followed by clerical, administrative, and now  
> > management level positions.
> >
> > Today, after years of automating and streamlining processes, we're  
> > seeing virtually every career in every industry under pressure.   
> > Consider the following report by CBS News:
> >
> > Jobs Created by Decade,
> > as reported by CBS News
> > Decade  Jobs Created
> > 1970's     19 Million
> > 1980's     18 Million
> > 1990's     21 Million
> > 2000's     Less Than
> > 1 Million
> >
> > Bottom line, we are in the middle of a massive restructuring of our  
> > employment base, and the jobs of yesterday are about as likely to  
> > return as that of the farm labor positions of the 1930's.  This is  
> > not only consistent with what happened during the Great Depression,  
> > but also what we would expect to happen during the "Winter" stage  
> > of the long economic cycle as reported in Deflation in History:
> >
> > the "Winter" stage, that of severe depression, includes the  
> > integration of previous social shifts and changes into the social  
> > fabric of society, supported by the shifts in innovation and  
> > technology.
> >
> > Jobs of Tomorrow
> >
> > In the next couple of postings, we'll explore the changing nature  
> > of the job market in more detail, with a special focus on new  
> > opportunities that can replace our old models of employment.  Since  
> > this is a work in progress, you questions and comments are  
> > encouraged.  Until next time ...
> >
> > Tranzitioning.com is a blog by Jay Fenello, principal and founder  
> > of BizPlacements.com, an Atlanta-based
> > Business Brokerage and Placement firm that helps people buy and  
> > sell small businesses and franchises.
> >
> > Cheers,
> >
> > Jay.
> >
> > +++
> >
> > Jay Fenello,
> > BizPlacements.com, LLC
> > http://BizPlacements.com/
> > Phone: 770-516-6922  eFax: 1-866-409-5932
> > ------------------------------------------
> > Check out Jay's Blog:  http://Tranzitioning.com/
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