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fewer IT workers in the future?
From: David Farber <dave () farber net>
Date: Mon, 23 Mar 2009 10:47:43 -0400
Begin forwarded message: From: Rod Van Meter <rdv () sfc wide ad jp> Date: March 23, 2009 10:09:23 AM EDT To: David Farber <dave () farber net> Subject: fewer IT workers in the future? Dave, For IP, if you wish... I've never met Phil Neches, but he has three degrees from Caltech and was the founder of Teradata, the database machine company (back in the 1980s), and sits on the Caltech Board of Trustees -- definitely a pro-IT guy, and very, very smart. I find it a curious opinion from someone in his position. Personally, I think it's likely he's wrong, but I really have no data to back that up. One possible wild card is that I'm uncertain exactly how he defines "IT worker". If he includes call center workers, as he seems to, he's likely right, in the long run. He does talk about some programming jobs disappearing, but he doesn't quite come out and say that the total number of programmers and hardware engineers will decline. Regards, --Rod http://mikelipper.blogspot.com/2009/03/land-of-re-revisited.html "I think we have seen the peak in percentage of the work force employed in information technology. I have been writing for several years now that IT as a percent of the work force will decline. I mean this world wide: outsourcing just moves the jobs and temporarily makes it possible for workers who are less productive to be competitive due to currency and standard-of-living arbitrage. "As the arbitrage declines, those workers are even more vulnerable to technological obsolescence than their US-based counterparts. Call center workers can be replaced by voice response systems. Low level application programmers can be replaced by new software development tools. "Agriculture, manufacturing, and now IT are characterized by continuing technology innovation that increases productivity: more output from fewer hours of labor. For the first 50 years of the IT industry, demand increase so much faster than productivity that employment increased. Demand is still increasing, but at a slower rate as the industry finally has enough capacity to meet the demand and is no longer growing into unfulfilled demand. Productivity growth remains high, and the balance is now such that the need for workers is growing slower than the population, or the economy as a whole." --- ------------------------------------------- Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/247/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/247/ Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
Current thread:
- fewer IT workers in the future? David Farber (Mar 23)
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- Re: fewer IT workers in the future? David Farber (Mar 24)