Apple's Master Plan (even fanboys should be scared)

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Jason Calacanis <jason () calacanis com>
Date: August 10, 2009 4:33:42 PM EDT
To: dave () farber net
Subject: Fwd: Apple's Master Plan (even fanboys should be scared)

More on Apple's direction (for IP if appropriate).


---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Jason Calacanis <jason () calacanis com>
Date: Mon, Aug 10, 2009 at 1:04 PM
Subject: Apple's Master Plan (even fanboys should be scared)
To: jason () binhost com


In this email
================
1. The Fallout from "The Case Against Apple"
2. Apple's Master Plan (and why even fanboys should be scared)

The Fallout
======================
The feedback from the last email missive, "The Case Against Apple,"
has gotten a predictably large and passionate response. Excellent!
That's my entire goal for doing this email newsletter: to create
discussions around issues I personally find important or interesting.

Now, some of you are starting to realize that this email newsletter is
a HUGE ploy for me to get smarter by doing 2% of the work associated
with solving big problems/issues. Well over 1,000 of the 16,000 of you
 responded to the "Case Against Apple." I've read about half of the
emails so far. You guys are teaching me 100x more than I'm teaching
you thanks to the asymmetrical nature of this medium.

If only I could post all your responses somewhere for the world to
see. Then again, you wouldn't send in the brilliant stuff you do if I
did I suppose. Also, publishing your comments would diminish the
massive competitive advantage I'm getting by having all your
collective thoughts to myself! :-)

Seriously, you guys are the best. After four months of writer's block
you've inspired me to do back-to-back pieces about things we all care
about--first the Yahoo piece and now this one. My mind is super
engaged right now, and that's when I'm happiest. When my mind is in
the middle of a really deep discussion and thought I'm on cloud
nine--how about you? In fact, sometimes after a full day at Mahalo I
go play poker for another five hours just to relax my brain. This
email newsletter serves the same purpose: you guys exhaust my brain so
I can sleep.

Now, in response to the piece well over 95% of you responded that
Apple was acting too closed and should, for market opportunities
alone, open up their platforms. One person got really upset because he
loves Apple products and unsubscribed, saying that I had taken things
too far. I begged him not to, but alas my pleas were for naught. How
will I ever survive?

Many folks pointed out, correctly, a number of flaws in my missive
including the fact that iTunes openness vs. Windows is not really
correct (or Apples to Apples--so to speak). The correct metaphor would
be the Zune's media store vs. Apple's. I stand corrected, but I still
believe that Apple should make an open API to iTunes and let folks
plug in whatever player they like.

A number of folks added that Flash not being available on the iPhone
was a really anticompetitive issue. I haven't researched that issue
too deeply, but I would of course love some Flash on both my
Blackberry and iPhone. When will the Flash issue on Blackberry and
iPhone be solved anyway? Does anyone have inside information on this
that I can share with the list?

The most fascinating part of the discussion to me were the technology
people who were fighting for less choice. Now, they are not fighting
for less choice in some greed-is-great Ayn Rand kind of way. No, these
lost souls are arguing that users are not savvy enough to make choices
for themselves and that Apple's core mission of stability trumps
openness. This is, of course, a red herring.

Apple's open when it benefits them (i.e. on the desktop), and closed
when it benefits them (i.e. the iPod and iPhone). Apple is more than
willing, and in fact excited, to have multiple browsers developed for
their desktop computers, but God forgive the poor soul who puts a
second browser on their iPhone!


2. Apple's Master Plan (and why even fanboys should be scared)
==========================
What we're seeing right now is the fight for the next desktop: the
mobile desktop. If Apple wins the fight for the mobile desktop--and
they are off to a great start--it will set the industry back decades.
We've fought and fought as an industry to make open platforms
connected to an open network.

Now Apple is trying to control the platform, applications and network
simply to line their own pockets. While you Ayn Rand-ers are busy
slapping high-fives, let me remind the rest of you that competition
and open platforms are better for consumers on all levels--from
pricing to performance. It is only in the short term that we benefit
from closed systems.

You want proof of how important this issues is? Well, according to
everyone Apple will produce a new line of netbooks/tablets in a couple
of months that are somewhere between the size of an iPhone and a
laptop. When this device comes to market what operating system do you
think it will run: Mac OS X desktop or the iPhone's OS?

Exactly.

This decision will be the ultimate tell for Steve Jobs. If Apple puts
the iPhone's OS on this device it's clear the direction he is going.

Is Apple working *backwards* from the closed iPhone up to netbooks,
media players and tablets? Is this just the start? Some day in order
to put software on your laptop or desktop you might have to go through
the App Store. Oh yeah, you might not be able to use Opera and Firefox
on your desktop any more. Oh yeah, and if Steve Jobs thinks the Flash
player isn't as stable as his competitor to it, well, Flash might not
be supported in the new version of Safari.

There are features in HTML 5 that some say with QuickTime could
replace Flash features. Blocking Flash on Apple's iPhone is certainly
a boost for Apple's game business on the iPhone (i.e. you can't play
bejewled in Flash on your iPhone--but you can buy Bejeweled 2 in the
App Store for $2.99).

This probably seems totally illogical to the Apple fanboys--heck it
feels illogical to me! However the fanboys are so drunk on the Kool
Aid that there is a good chance that they will just go along for the
ride. "Sure, lock down my tablet... why should I care?"

The rest of us? Well, it's really up to us to make it very clear to
Apple that we don't like the direction they are going in.

Freedom for our generation starts at our keyboards, flows through our
computers and phones, and then on to the internet. Anyone who tries to
limit your freedoms in that process is the enemy--even if they produce
the best products available right now.

all the best,

Jason




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