Yahoo! R.I.P.?

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Lauren Weinstein <lauren () vortex com>
Date: August 8, 2009 5:05:07 PM EDT
To: dave () farber net
Subject: Yahoo! R.I.P.?



                                 Yahoo! R.I.P.?

                  http://lauren.vortex.com/archive/000601.html


Greetings.  I've never been one to promote premature burials.  But
occasionally a single quote by a highly-placed corporate executive
crystallizes (often in hindsight, sometimes prophetically) the factors
behind the ultimate failure of a firm.

In the early days of the ARPANET/Internet and the Unix OS, the
minicomputers manufactured by Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC)
ruled the roost.  DEC's legendary central R&D facility ("The Mill") in
Maynard, Massachusetts was a wonder to behold.  DEC sported facilities
that even Google doesn't (yet) match -- like their own helicopter
service and a private "digital" gate at (Logan) airport.  It seemed
inconceivable that DEC could vanish.

But in 1977, when DEC founder Ken Olsen -- a frequent "debunker" of
personal computers -- told a convention audience that, "There is no
reason for any individual to have a computer in his home!" the fate of
DEC was effectively sealed, and its slide into oblivion was already
well underway.  Fundamentally, Olsen just "didn't get it."

Fast forward three decades.  When recently explaining a new deal that
effectively ends Yahoo's own search engine activities in favor of
Microsoft's Bing, Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz told the New York Times that
"We [Yahoo] have never been a search company." ( http://bit.ly/16cULw )

While Ken Olsen's quote showed a profound lack of foresight, Bartz's
comment seems to be something else -- a painful case of denial.  But
it seems likely that her statement nonetheless presages Yahoo's own
road to ultimate absorption, obscurity, and extinction -- except
perhaps as a disembodied brand name operating in lockstep under orders
from masters in Redmond.

Yahoo played a major role in the rise of the Internet as we know it
today, and it is with considerable sadness that I predict these
events.  Perhaps I'm wrong.  Perhaps Yahoo will find a way to continue
and thrive in the long run.  If so, more power to them -- competition
is a good thing.

However, when I saw Bartz's quote, a "ghost of DEC" feeling of "deja
vu all over again" was unmistakable.  When I shop at the (beautifully
sci-fi themed) Fry's in Burbank, a Yahoo!-branded office building
stands prominently nearby.  I wonder how long that logo will remain so
ensconced.

I don't recommend replacing the white cemetery plot map pins with
black ones while the associated bodies are still warm.  But it's
difficult to see how Yahoo can pull itself out of the maelstrom in
which it now finds itself.

I do wish Yahoo the best of luck.  But I fear that in the march of
Internet time, Yahoo's clock is rapidly winding down.  Time and tide
wait for no man -- nor will they wait for Yahoo.

--Lauren--
Lauren Weinstein
lauren () vortex com
Tel: +1 (818) 225-2800
http://www.pfir.org/lauren
Co-Founder, PFIR
  - People For Internet Responsibility - http://www.pfir.org
Co-Founder, NNSquad
  - Network Neutrality Squad - http://www.nnsquad.org
Founder, GCTIP - Global Coalition
  for Transparent Internet Performance - http://www.gctip.org
Founder, PRIVACY Forum - http://www.vortex.com
Member, ACM Committee on Computers and Public Policy
Lauren's Blog: http://lauren.vortex.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/laurenweinstein




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