Re: Marketplace story on FCC and Comcast

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

________________________________________
From: Gary Johnston [johnston () nku edu]
Sent: Monday, July 14, 2008 12:18 PM
To: David Farber
Subject: Re: [IP] Marketplace story on FCC and Comcast

Dave,

The student quality compressed movie downloads seem to be more in the
size range of .5GB to .7GB and not typically the 3GB per movie used as
a premise in Larry's computations.  So dividing his results by 5
should yield a more realistic result.

Gary

Sent from Gary's Apple/AT&T iPhone

On Jul 14, 2008, at 6:59 AM, David Farber <dave () farber net> wrote:

> ________________________________________
> From: Dr. Lawrence Roberts [lroberts () anagran com]
> Sent: Sunday, July 13, 2008 9:53 PM
> To: Dan Lynch; David Farber; lroberts () anagran com
> Subject: Re: [IP] Marketplace story on FCC and Comcast
>
> Dan,
> For those who want to watch a movie per day, downloading a 3 GB
> movie at 500 Kbps takes 13 hrs, about all you want to spend on it.
> However you also must in return send out 3 GB of your stored movies
> each day for the system to work. If 5% of a University student body
> does this, a 20,000 student University would require 500 Mbps each
> way during the 13 peak hours. So you see, it is easy to consume 1/2
> Mbps per person. Is there a limit? Yes I would think so. 2-3 movies
> per day seem like the most one could consume. But some of these
> students use 5 Mbps continuously. So when I say unlimited appetite,
> I mean within the context of current average people usage which is
> much lower.
>
> An Example:
> If a University has 5000 students and 180 of them use 1/2 Mbps for
> the peak period then the average data rate over a 100 Mbps Internet
> access will be 20 Kbps and each P2P user is using 25 flows. There
> will be another 500 average users trying to operate one flow at any
> moment and they also will get 20 Kbps. 90% of the capacity is going
> to P2P.
> Larry
>
>
> At 03:56 PM 7/13/2008, Dan Lynch wrote:
> Larry, I don't doubt your measurements, but gee, are you saying that
> P2P has
> an "unlimited" appetite?  As if there are an unlimited number of
> files to be
> shared and the queue stretches to infinity?  Where is that demand
> coming
> from?  I am imagining hordes of files out there that people are
> adding to
> their Torrent lists as the pipes come slightly unclogged. Is that
> your model
> of demand?
>
> Dan
>
> PS.  Too bad storage got so cheap! Else someone could be making more
> money
> out of that!
>
>
> On 7/13/08 2:28 PM, "David Farber" <dave () farber net> wrote:
>
> > ________________________________________
> > From: Dr. Lawrence Roberts [lroberts () anagran com]
> > Sent: Sunday, July 13, 2008 3:08 PM
> > To: David Farber; Dr. Lawrence Roberts
> > Subject: RE: Marketplace story on FCC and Comcast
> >
> > Dave,
> > Sure! I want people to start understanding the dynamics of the
> > problem.
> > Please add me also if that,s ok so I can see comments.
> > Larry
> >
> >
> > At 02:44 AM 7/13/2008, David Farber wrote:
> > Can I repost to my IP list?
> >
> > ________________________________________
> > From: Dr. Lawrence Roberts [lroberts () anagran com]
> > Sent: Saturday, July 12, 2008 11:43 PM
> > Subject: RE: Marketplace story on FCC and Comcast
> >
> > Jeff,
> > Like George, I agree the DSL and FTTX ISP's will not shift, but
> > there is
> > another reason. The DSL companies have just as big or larger
> > problem with P2P
> > since P2P expands to fill any capacity. In fact, as I have been
> > testing and
> > modeling P2P I find it taking up even higher fractions of the
> > capacity as the
> > total capacity expands. This is because each P2P app. can get more
> > capacity
> > and it is designed to take all it can. In the Univerisities we have
> > measured,
> > the P2P grows to between 95-98% of their Internet usage. It does
> > this by
> > reducing the rate per flow lower and lower, which by virtue of the
> > current
> > network design where all flows get equal capacity, drives the
> > average rate per
> > flow for average users down to their rate. They then win by virtue
> > of having
> > more flows, up to 1000 per user. I suspect they do not do this on
> > cable since
> > the upstream capacity is only 10 Mbps and when it saturates, they
> > must stop at
> > about 80%. But raise the capacity per user and the capacity of the
> > upstream
> > choke point and watch out! P2P can consume virtually any capacity.
> > Larry
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > -------------------------------------------
> > Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/247/=now
> > RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/247/
> > Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com<http://www.listbox.com/>
>
>
>
> Tel. 707-967-0203   Cell  650-776-7313
> My assistant is Dori Kirk   Tel. 707-255-7094  dori () lynch com
>
>
> Dr. Lawrence G. Roberts,  Ph:+1 650-906-8746,  W:  www.anagran.com<http://www.anagran.com/
> > , E:    lroberts () anagran com
> Founder, Chairman, Chief Architect, Anagran, Inc., 580 Pastoria
> Ave., Sunnyvale, CA 94085 USA
> If not for you, please return. Any use other than the intended
> recipient is unauthorized.
>
>
>
>
>
> -------------------------------------------
> Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/247/=now
> RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/247/
> Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com



-------------------------------------------
Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/247/=now
RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/247/
Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com