Re: AP article on MPAA mistake (fwd)

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Brock N Meeks <bmeeks () cox net>
Date: January 23, 2008 9:55:36 AM EST
To: dave () farber net
Subject: Re: [IP] AP article on MPAA mistake (fwd)

I'm shocked, shocked I tell you, to discover the MPAA is fudging it's  
numbers!

I swear, this scheme of inflating losses--brought about by nefarious  
"beyond-their-control" practices--foisted on us by trade associations  
just never quits.  I think they all get issued the same playbook, file  
off the serial number, and expect us all to swallow every fact and  
figure as if it were tried and true.

Any reporter covering such industry-wide revenue loss stories should  
immediately start ripping the alleged numbers apart as soon as the  
press release is issued. I mean, this is low-hanging fruit for  
journalists, because the names may change but the final outcome rarely  
does:  that the numbers are cooked.

From my own experience:  When I covered tech issues, every year the  
Business Software Alliance would bleat and moan about the "billions"  
being lost to software privacy.  Each year's claim was bolstered by an  
impressive press release and "study" that came with charts (look, it's  
in color this year!) and grafs and BIG NUMBERS that reporters could  
put in their lead paragraphs.  Only... when you asked the SBA to  
actually tell you how they were able to magically (heroically) ferret  
out these losses, on a global basis, and from inside countries where  
they had no legal standing and little access <cough: China>, they  
stumbled all over themselves.  They had no good answer; instead they  
coughed up a hair ball explanation, saying their figures were largely  
"estimates."  They estimated that X number of PCs were sold in China  
and that on each machine there were X number of illegal programs  
loaded onto them and that each of those programs resulted in X amount  
of lost revenue, therefore, the software industry was "suffering" from  
a XX billion dollar global loss...

I just checked the latest report... IDC did the analysis, using  
"proprietary statistics" for software and hardware shipments (if a + b  
= c then..) that are "gathered through surveys of vendors [no one ever  
lies or has an agenda for shading their answers!], users and the  
channel, and enlisted IDC analysts in more than fifty countries to  
review local market conditions."

Umm... so, a country product manager for Mr. Big Software Marker, sees  
his or her numbers drop below quota, what to do??!!  Oh yeah, it's  
that damn software piracy problem!  [I'm not implying that product  
managers are corrupt or liars or cheats... I'm just saying...]

Bah.

It was nothing but a wild ass guess, easily inflated for the media, a  
charade.  [OK, ok... yes, I know software piracy is a legit issue; my  
point is that cooking the books degrades the issue.]

Second example: the loss in revenue to the long distance telephone  
companies (remember when there were companies that only handled long  
distance calls?  Look it up in Wikipedia, I'm sure it's there...)  
owing to long distance calling card fraud.

I remember each year, just like the SBA, the long distance companies  
would come together and bleat and moan (see playbook, chapter 5:  
Suggested Drama Strategies on Press Day) about the billions being lost  
each year.

I pressed them and pressed and pressed them to tell me how they were  
getting these numbers--because like SBA, they grew and grew and grew,  
until finally they were just ludicrous--and, lo and behold, it was all  
just an "educated guess."

MPAA is now just the latest group to have dropped it's playbook for  
all to see.


On Jan 23, 2008, at 8:40 AM, David Farber wrote:

> Begin forwarded message:
>
> From: chodge5 () utk edu
> Date: January 23, 2008 8:38:15 AM EST
> To: Dave Farber <dave () farber net>
> Subject: [CIO] AP article on MPAA mistake (fwd)
>
>
> This was sent out on the CIO list by Mark Luker, EDUCAUSE VP (and  
> their
> point person for file sharing).
>
> http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5j33CBI8sUdc5ni7RlxSj5SIEc2mwD8UB6S0O2
>
> In a 2005 study it commissioned, the Motion Picture Association of  
> America
> claimed that 44 percent of the industry's domestic losses came from
> illegal downloading of movies by college students, who often have  
> access
> to high-bandwidth networks on campus.
>
> The MPAA has used the study to pressure colleges to take tougher  
> steps to
> prevent illegal file-sharing and to back legislation currently  
> before the
> House of Representatives that would force them to do so.
>
> But now the MPAA, which represents the U.S. motion picture industry,  
> has
> told education groups a "human error" in that survey caused it to  
> get the
> number wrong. It now blames college students for about 15 percent of
> revenue loss.
> owered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com



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