Broadband competition: Is this as good as it gets?

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: dewayne () warpspeed com (Dewayne Hendricks)
Date: August 22, 2008 10:57:29 AM EDT
To: Dewayne-Net Technology List <xyzzy () warpspeed com>
Subject: [Dewayne-Net] Broadband competition: Is this as good as it  
gets?

BROADBAND COMPETITION: IS THIS AS GOOD AS IT GETS?

Competition in the broadband space is currently about as good as it's  
going to get for the foreseeable future, and could even backslide,  
according to Blair Levin, an analyst with Stifel Nicolaus. "Prospects  
for the long-heralded 'third pipe' appear dim and dimming," Levin  
said, referring to the notion of a hypothetical major competitor to  
both telco and cable companies. "In terms of wireless and broadband  
buildouts, there's unlikely to be another new national buildout, other  
than Clearwire, in the foreseeable future," Levin said. At times,  
municipalities and utility energy providers have been proposed as  
possible providers of a 'third pipe.' But energy firms retreated en  
masse from dalliances in telecom during the industry's bubble  
correction shortly after the turn of the century, and broadband-over- 
powerline technology has thus far failed to take off. Municipal  
broadband efforts, meanwhile, have met with mixed results. "There's  
not that much left to be disruptive," Levin continued. "White spaces  
could be in rural areas, and a little bit in broadband, but I don't  
think so. Other things that people are looking to be disruptive I  
don't think will happen." At the same time, Levin said 4G wireless  
rollouts in 2010 or 2012 could represent a significant change in the  
competitive landscape. "That is a far more significant competitive  
threat than I think people realize," he said, adding that, for  
wireline providers feeling the sting of wireless substitution, "The  
worst ... is yet to come."

<http://telephonyonline.com/home/news/broadband-competition-0821>

Courtesy of the Benton Foundation <http://www.benton.org>
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