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more on DO READ Biowar for Dummies]
From: Dave Farber <dave () farber net>
Date: Thu, 23 Feb 2006 15:51:38 -0500
-------- Original Message -------- Subject: [Dewayne-Net] re: Biowar for Dummies Date: Thu, 23 Feb 2006 10:54:35 -0800 From: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne () warpspeed com> Reply-To: dewayne () warpspeed com To: Dewayne-Net Technology List <dewayne-net () warpspeed com> References: <007701c638a8$b6484a90$077aa0c0@Dafydd3> [Note: This comment comes from reader Dave Hughes. DLH]
From: "Dave Hughes" <history () oldcolo com> Date: February 23, 2006 10:41:08 AM PST To: <dewayne () warpspeed com> Subject: Re: [Dewayne-Net] re: Biowar for Dummies If Ted Kircher had not added the reference '.and citizens' to his insightful comments re: Biowar ("When will the U.S. (government and citizens) understand.") I would not bother to compose this post. For it has been the simplistic knee-jerk reaction of citizens from both the left and the right, over what the 'government', has been doing since 9/11 that has preempted deep enough debate on the real long term issues of US national security. Ted makes three points: that ('military?) 'bullying' won't work, development of a middle class in the third world will, and that we haven't begun to see what 'biowar' and other means can do to us. Up to a point he has it right. But as Yogi Berra would say its 'De Ja Vue all over again.' Ted is articulating now what some of us understood clearly, and articulated to and through a Democratic Administration 40 years ago during the Vietnam War, but which advice went over the heads of 'citizens' then, as I am afraid Ted's sophisticated analysis can now. The parallels between 1966 and 2006 are quite exact, right down what both leftist Democrat dove McNamara and rightest Republican neocon Wolfowitz did for their mea culpa after helping lose their wars by leaving to run the World Bank! Which in its clumsy way contributes to 'developing a middle class' in foreign countries. I invite you to read the major policy speech I wrote for Defense Secretary McNamara in 1966 - as his 'Assistant for Counterinsurgency' where he - based on what a small handful of we uniformed Army officers had studied about the coming nature of our 'future' wars and what we recommended our American, not just military policies for preventing and dealing with them should be based upon. A long term strategic American national security policy, not just a short term tactical military view. Its distilled in that speech. We soldiers knew Clausewitz was dying, if not dead. And Nuclear deterrence only deterred nuclear war. Neither did much for the coming age of terrorism or guerilla wars. <http://www.oldcolo.com/McNamara/mcnamara.html> The e=mc2 for the US prevailing in future wars, particularly those involving the 3d World, that was embedded in his speech was - and still is, for Western governments - Security is Development Not 'just' military force (though Kircher is wrong that such wars are 'unwinnable' or that somehow 'military force' is just for bullying. Military force alone cannot 'win' over modern insurgencies, but its absence in the face of violent insurgencies, can sure lose them. In fact I shook up USAID after that speech when I informed them that pouring ham-handed US Foreign Aid into underdeveloped countries as often as not precipitates civil wars, as often as it does help prevent them. Nigeria anyone? The battle to create a 'middle class' is often extremely violent. Which simply can't be ignored. Decades of development can be ruined by days of violence. Force has to be met by force. From police to counter- Iranian missle shots. I'll bet few on this list ever wondered how backward, suppressed (by Japan), South Korea ever emerged to become the economic power it is. One major factor was the massive 'technology transfer' from the US Military through the S Korean military over years of war, that 'modernized' the work force of a small nation. Laid down the prerequisite for investment. And thus a middle class. I know how economically primitive they were before 1950. I was there. 55 years ago. But we also saw, 40 years ago the 'miniaturization' of technology coming. Stinger missiles any half-instructed peasant could fire, shaped charges designed to kill Soviet tanks, now RPGs fired by teenagers against American soldiers - and civilians - modern explosives, now suicide bomber belts. And of course, satellite linked cam corders, used by Media to tell all, how the US is losing the war, and personal computers, now driving 1,000 Al Quaeda jihaddist web sites. And Biowar agents) We pointed out that advances in technology for waging war favors the rebel more than its government. (sorry Air Force) As Kircher points out, we haven't seen nuthin yet. BUT where he and I part company - or perhaps he just hasn't thought it through enough, is on how you get from here to there. Rumsfeld refused to listen to quite qualified military professionals, many of whom know a hell of a lot more how to 'nation build' in the midst of violence, and what the winning mix must be between military Civil Affairs, Special Forces, NSA intercepts, Combat Infantry units, diplomacy, and the Corps of Engineers, than Halliburton or Bremmer ever will. It is on the very difficult issue of 'how' does the US foster, among about 5 of the 6 billion restive people on this planet, with their sectarian, (Sunnis, Shia) territorial (Kurds, Basques), religious (Palestinian, Israel) 'a fat dumb and happy middle class' - while dealing with ever more dangerous 'wars', insurgent, civil, or cross border ones which inevitably ensue? Modernization is a much more violent process than Americans will ever admit. Or, unfortunately, have the patience to see through in this age of instant gratification or failure, or instant Sunday Morning Talk Show, or Maillist analysis. Dave Hughes dave () oldcolo com
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- more on DO READ Biowar for Dummies] Dave Farber (Feb 23)