The Great Disrupter - Wi-Fi

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne () warpspeed com>
Date: August 4, 2006 9:53:22 PM EDT
To: Dewayne-Net Technology List <dewayne-net () warpspeed com>
Subject: [Dewayne-Net] The Great Disrupter - Wi-Fi
Reply-To: dewayne () warpspeed com

[Note:  This item comes from reader Charles Brown.  DLH]

Commentary
The Great Disrupter
Rich Karlgaard, 06.07.04, 8:00 AM ET
<http://www.forbes.com/technology/wireless/2004/06/03/ 
cz_rk_wifi04_karl.html>

Bell Labs invented the transistor in 1948. Nothing to worry about,  
mused RCA and other corporate giants then enjoying profits from  
vacuum tubes. The giants weren't wrong. The humble little transistor  
was not threatening--at first--because it couldn't power television  
sets or table radios or room-size computers. What was this small  
curiosity good for, other than demonstrating the inventive  
capabilities of Bell Labs?

But in 1955 a young Japanese company called Sony (nyse: SNE - news -  
people ) slipped a transistor into a cheap pocket radio and invented  
a market. The rest is history. Funny thing is, even in 1955 the  
established giants, the vacuum-tube suppliers, felt un-threatened by  
the transistor. Tinny-sounding radios for teenagers--that was a  
sideshow, not a real business. Of course, over the ensuing years Sony  
grew into a mighty global brand. RCA faded into irrelevance.

The story of cheap technology disruption was told again in the late  
1970s, when the personal computer appeared. Initially available as a  
build-your-own kit, the PC was rather ugly to look at and performed  
few useful tasks. It caused no worry to computer giants such as  
Digital Equipment, Honeywell (nyse: HON - news - people ) or IBM  
(nyse: IBM - news - people ). If the limited capabilities of the PC  
weren't bad enough, all you had to do was look at the rabble using  
it: long-haired geeks who bathed irregularly and looked like refugees  
from the planet Zork. The PC was a sideshow, thought the giants. It  
would never gain entry into corporate computing centers. Ever.

Do you recall the first time you heard about Wi-Fi? I first learned  
about it in 2000--and dismissed it. After all, what was this small  
curiosity really good for? I was hard put to think of practical uses  
for Wi-Fi beyond providing harmless entertainment for teenage nerds.  
The kids' idea of a fun night was "war chalking" hot spots with a  
Pringles can, a coat hanger and free downloadable sniffing software.  
A sideshow, in other words.

Now it's 2004, and I'm writing this column from my laptop while  
perched on my Relax The Back lounge chair in the family room of my  
house. My son is watching a Lord of the Rings movie. He has watched  
the movie a half-dozen times, and I just once. Yet I can amaze him  
with movie facts. From my untethered laptop I can access Google, type  
in "Lord of the Rings," and off we go, courtesy of our home Wi-Fi  
network.

Wi-Fi in 2004 is about where the PC was in 1984. The technology  
provides new conveniences, new ways of working and keeping up. It is  
a delight to use. We love showing it to household guests.

Wi-Fi is on its way to becoming a huge hit. Its customer base has  
grown beyond the geeky teenagers and early adopters. Around the  
world, Wi-Fi is storming the mainstream.

The best is yet to come. The most frightening is yet to come if you  
happen to run a traditional phone company. Remember how the PC grew  
powerful and began--starting in the late 1980s--to bedevil and  
disrupt big computer giants? Wi-Fi is on the same revolutionary path.  
Be very afraid, phone giants.

[snip]

Weblog at: <http://weblog.warpspeed.com>



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