Swanni: Video iPod Will Be Steve Jobs' Folly

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne () warpspeed com>
Date: October 13, 2005 10:27:35 AM EDT
To: Dewayne-Net Technology List <dewayne-net () warpspeed com>
Subject: [Dewayne-Net] Swanni: Video iPod Will Be Steve Jobs' Folly
Reply-To: dewayne () warpspeed com


[Note:  I think that the Swanni may be wrong here.  Apple just made  
video a standard feature of the iPod.  I think that it will be used  
just like all the other features on the iPod are now.  There are  
going to be lots of ways to get video into the iPod soon from third  
parties, that will bypass the Apple's ITMS.  DLH]

Swanni: Video iPod Will Be Steve Jobs' Folly
Phillip Swann predicts that Apple's new portable video player will  
fail miserably.
Special to TVPredictions.com
<http://www.tvpredictions.com/ipod101105.html>

Washington D.C. (October 12, 2005) -- Apple Computer today unveiled  
an iPod that can play videos and TV shows as well as audio music. The  
portable device will sell for $299 and $399, depending upon the  
unit's storage capacity.

During the announcement, Apple also announced that Disney-ABC would  
offer episodes of Lost and Desperate Housewives for $1.99 each  iPod  
owners will be able to download the shows the day after they air on  
the network.

Apple CEO Steve Jobs called the new video IPod "really very beautiful  
and very thin."

However, Phillip Swann, president of TVPredictions.com who's also  
known as Swanni, says the chances that iPod's video feature will  
succeed are thin.

"The video iPod will be Steve Jobs' folly," Swann said. "Americans  
will not watch full-length videos -- or perhaps even short music  
videos -- on 2.5-inch screens on portable devices. It makes no sense.

The music IPod is successful because it replicates something we've  
been doing for more than two decades -- listening to portable music  
players while on the go. It's easy because we can continue to perform  
other tasks while we listen to our tunes."

Swann added: "However, the video iPod will require you to stop what  
you're doing and focus on a video. Who has the time to do that during  
the day? Plus, the video will be on a small screen that will make  
watching highly uncomfortable and unsatisfying.

And, as for the feature that enables you to connect the iPod to a TV  
so you can watch a downloaded ABC show on the bigger screen, why  
would anyone do that? You could instead simply record the show the  
night before on a DVR. And the DVR recording can be done for free  
(after the monthly subscription); no $1.99 download fee required."

Swann continued: "Some might say that Apple is not taking a big risk  
because the video feature will simply be an addition to a new audio  
iPod. However, the company will have to invest considerable money in  
supporting and marketing the video feature. And, if the venture  
fails, the company's image will be badly hurt. It will look like  
Apple had overreached.

The video iPod was born from arrogance. Apple has been so successful  
with the audio iPod that it thinks it can't go wrong. But it will  
this time. This is an example of a technology that is being launched  
only because it can be, not because anybody wants it."

Swann concluded by saying: "Sometimes, companies -- and people --  
don't realize they already have a perfect situation. They feel  
compelled to try to make it 'better.' But by doing so, they actually  
water down the quality and image and turn the product into something  
much less than perfect. My advice to Apple: Don't mess with a good  
thing."

Weblog at: <http://weblog.warpspeed.com>



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