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Good thing Google's not Evil, eh?
From: David Farber <dave () farber net>
Date: Sat, 19 Nov 2005 11:15:24 -0500
-------- Original Message -------- Subject: Good thing Google's not Evil, eh? Date: Thu, 17 Nov 2005 16:09:59 -0500 From: Randall <rvh40 () insightbb com> To: Dave <dave () farber net> CC: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne () warpspeed com> http://tinyurl.com/97xjmGoldman: Economic Implications of Google Base 'Will Be Dramatic' By Jennifer Saba Published: November 17, 2005 12:03 PM ET
NEW YORK Google's foray into the classified category is still nascent, but if Google Base takes off, it could be a huge threat to newspapers, said a report released today from Goldman Sachs. It's "yet another challenge to the hegemony of newspaper publishers in the classified market," wrote Peter Appert, an analyst at Goldman Sachs. Though still in its beta phase, Google Base lets users submit information -- like recipes or lists of used junk in one's garage -- where it's stored in a database and made searchable. It's a free serviceand, as of now, it does not provide a transaction function.
Appert does not expect Google Base to impact the industry in the short term (within the next 12 months). At the moment Google aggregates information from other classified sites, including CareerBuilder, which is owned by Gannett, Tribune, and Knight Ridder, in an arrangement meantto drive traffic to partner sites.
But Appert sends up a flair: "If Google eventually charges for listings, or if advertisers find they get adequate results posting directly on Google and can bypass paid listing services aggregated by Google, theeconomic implications will be dramatic."
To drive home the point, the report mentions the San Francisco Chronicle as a likely harbinger of things to come. The newspaper is estimated to be unprofitable (Hearst, which owns the Chronicle, is a private company), in part because of the loss of classifieds to the popular andfree Craigslist.
"While the success of Google Base is not assured, we think it is inevitable that newspaper publishers will see erosion in their classified ad share (and profitability) over the next five years as the number of alternatives to traditional print classified ads grows. This is a key reason for our cautious investment view on the sector," the report said. Below is a list of newspaper companies' exposure to classified revenues as a percent of total company revenues: Journal Register Co.: 32.5% Knight Ridder: 31.2% McClatchy: 30.9% Gannett: 29.3% Media General: 23.6% Lee Enterprises: 22.2% Tribune: 21.0% The New York Times Co.: 18.4% Journal Communications: 10.3% E.W. Scripps: 9.6% Washington Post Co.: 2.4% Note: Belo and Dow Jones do not report classified revenues. ________________________________________________________________________ Jennifer Saba (jsaba () editorandpublisher com) is associate editor for E&P. -- http://htdaw.blogsource.com ------------------------------------- You are subscribed as lists-ip () insecure org To manage your subscription, go to http://v2.listbox.com/member/?listname=ip Archives at: http://www.interesting-people.org/archives/interesting-people/
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- Good thing Google's not Evil, eh? David Farber (Nov 19)