more on Japan demonstrates next-gen TV broadcast

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Matthew Gream <matthew.gream () pobox com>
Date: November 7, 2005 6:16:59 AM EST
To: dave () farber net
Subject: RE: [IP] Japan demonstrates next-gen TV broadcast
Reply-To: matthew.gream () pobox com


I don't think there is any need to be concerned about additional
innovation beyond HDTV. The next phase of innovation in the business of
video delivery will occur on the IP platform, not the 20+ year old
broadcasting platform where HDTV is probably the last gasp of air. I  
feel
optimistic about this.

Unlike the broadcasting platform, the IP platform is an open market  
where
all types of codecs and formats will be in unregulated competition. The
market can drive the technologies itself, rather than be hamstrung by
regulatory issues of an old-world broadcasting platform. In the new  
world,
media devices already have far more codec and display flexibility  
(aside:
we won't be watching TV on our computers, but our TV's will internally
look just like our computers). There will still be innovation limiters:
i.e. the available capabilities of the IP platform, and issues re.  
DRM and
content protection.

If there's a business case for super hi-def video delivery, expect the
market to satisfy it without having to wait for regulations.

The example of this in action is the business of music delivery. In the
last five years it's just started its very first steps of migrating from
the stifling old world of regulated AM, FM (and perhaps DAB, etc)  
formats
to the new world of MP3, AAC, OGG, WMA, RM, etc.

In the case of video delivery, disruptive reformation of delivery  
onto the
IP platform has hardly started (pokey video bites in web pages, web
streaming video, IPTV, iTunes video downloads, the P2P video-sharing  
wars,
etc). We're looking at years, if not a decade, I think, for all the
strands to come into place (i.e. the wide availability of video streams
and content, at acceptable quality, to a enough IP connected end users,
with low cost and ubiquitous broadband tuners [i.e. media player
generation-N]) to make it a reality.

Here in the UK, there's excitement about the coming wide-scale
availability ADSL2+ at 24Mbps (if you're lucky). Unfortunately, this
doesn't really offer much hope for the next decade of innovation in
rich-and-high-speed services such as mass-market video-over-IP. We  
really
need something better, but there's not much to hope for on the horizon.
The party over the UK's mass availability of high-speed broadband may be
over in a few years time when we're looking on in envy at places (that
already exist in fact) where gigabits (if not gigabytes) per second  
to the
home are enabling all sorts of services with higher content-density.

Matthew

> > Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne () warpspeed com> (November 5, 2005  
> > 1:40:38 AM
> > EST)
> >
> > [Note:  This item comes from reader Mike Cheponis.  There is a good
> > message here.  Look how long its taken us to move from NTSC to HDTV
> > video, and we're still not there yet.  How long will it take us to
> > move from HDTV to something like this?  DLH]
> >
> > Japan demonstrates next-gen TV broadcast
> >
> > Yoshiko Hara
> > (11/03/2005 3:16 PM EST)
> > URL: <http://www.eetimes.com/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=173402762>
> >
> > ...

--
Matthew Gream
matthew.gream () pobox com
http://matthewgream.net


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