Clash of the Titans

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Pwesonally I would like to know what consulting/advising relationships both
parties have/had

Dave

------ Forwarded Message
From: Ram Narayanan <ramn_wins () adelphia net>
Date: Sun, 06 Mar 2005 12:29:08 -0600
To: <dave () farber net>
Subject: Clash of the Titans

Dear Dave:
 
FOREIGN POLICY Magazine of January/February 2005, published by the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace, has an engaging piece of correspondence
on China and the future of US-China relations between
Dr Zbigniew Brzezinski of the Center for Strategic and International Studies
and Dr John J. Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago. It's titled, "Clash
of the Titans." 
 
The  Brzezinski-Mearsheimer dialogue (see below), makes some interesting
points such as:
 
Mearsheimer:
 
"China is likely to try to dominate Asia the way the United States dominates
the Western Hemisphere".
 
"An increasingly powerful China is likely to try to push the United States
out of Asia"
 
 
Brzezinski:
 
"China is preoccupied, and almost fascinated, with the trajectory of its own
ascent".
 
"China¹s desire for continued economic growth makes conflict with the United
States unlikely". 
 
"China¹s leadership appears rational, calculating, and conscious not only of
China¹s rise but also of its continued weakness".
 
"The Chinese leadership appears much more flexible and sophisticated than
many previous aspirants to great power status".
 
However, the two experts do not go far enough or deep enough in their
prognosis of the future scenario or of the options before the United States
 
Yes, nationalism - aggressive nationalism - is a hallmark of the rising
Chinese nation - no doubt about that, but the Chinese are going to:
 
- fight the battle of great powers in the field of globalized trade: China
is playing its card here, very well and much of the manufacturing world is
increasingly tilted in its favor. This tilt is going to become even more
pronounced over the next few years (see the article on "How China will
change your business" http://www.inc.com/magazine/20050301/china.html
<http://www.inc.com/magazine/20050301/china.html> )
 
- fight out the battle in the arena of soft-power. China understands the
hold of American culture, media, intellectuals and universities. Here, China
is behind - but is trying to catch up initially with increased foreign
student admissions at its universities. One shouldn't be surprised if China
spends much more in this arena over the next few decades
 
- create good long term relationships with other Asian powers like India and
South Korea. In South Korea, amongst the youth, the US is not well liked -
in India, some sections of the media, intellectuals and politicians are
sympathetic to China(notwithstanding the Chinese aggression of 1962). As an
example, China is begining  to open up manufacturing plants in India. And in
Bangalore, in the future you may probably see as many Chinese faces as
American  faces. 
 
The fact that India and South East Asia may well become the engines of
growth for many years to come and China could end up having better relations
with these countries than the US - is going to tilt the "balance" - whether
the US is going to like it or not.
 
The question is - can Dr Brzezinski look beyond cold-war tactics and nuclear
sabre-rattling to see that the game has been pulled from underneath his
feet?
 
Therein, lies the peril for the United States - some of its intellectuals
seem to be fighting the last war - the last cold war, I mean.
 
As the essay on "The U.S., India and China" published in THE WASHINGTON
TIMES of February 9, 2005 (See
http://www.washtimes.com/upi-breaking/20050209-075842-1522r.htm) said:
 
"The National Intelligence Council (NIC), the think-tank of the Director of
Central Intelligence, recently came out with a study titled "Mapping the
Global Future." Among other things, the report forecasts the rise of India
and China as potential global powers by the year 2020. Of the two countries,
only China, whose GDP is predicted in the NIC document to overtake America's
by the year 2042, is clearly the aggressive competitor of the United
States". 
 
The Washington Times article takes the issue of US-China relations over a
longer period to its logical conclusion and it suggests the only possible
option open to the United States.
 
Ram Narayanan
US India Friendship
http://www.usindiafriendship.net <http://www.usindiafriendship.net>
 
 
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/files/story2740.php

Zbigniew Brzezinski is a counselor at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies.
John J. Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison distinguished service
professor of political science at the University of Chicago, where he
codirects the Program in International Security Policy. He is the author of
The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W.W. Norton, 2001).

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