SkyFILES: Seven Prophecies

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne () warpspeed com>
Date: December 16, 2005 3:18:17 AM EST
To: Dewayne-Net Technology List <dewayne-net () warpspeed com>
Subject: [Dewayne-Net] SkyFILES: Seven Prophecies
Reply-To: dewayne () warpspeed com

        SkyFILES: Seven Prophecies
by Michael Hopkins mhopkins () mediabiz com


What can satellite TV and satellite radio expect next year?
How about more competition ... and (unfortunately) maybe some
burdensome mandates coming from inside the Beltway:

*More VOD From Cable - And a lot of that on-demand content
will still be free to subscribers. Also, more VOD titles will
be local in nature, and take aim at niche audiences. With VOD,
the satellite TV guys could find it hard to compete
effectively with cable incumbents.

*EchoStar's Strategic Moves - In 2005 Charles Ergen and Co.
were quiet about DISH Network's prospects and developing
business plans. But don't expect the company to sit back and
allow the competition to take over, especially with the new
cadre of executives at the company. In 2006, EchoStar will
debut more high-def (and we don't mean just the VOOM
channels). The effort will include a plan for local HD. Also,
could DISH take the wraps off of a broadband product?

*Satellite Radio Will Still Rock Next Year - Sirius will get
a decent subscriber bump from Howard Stern's debut in January,
but it won't be huge for the No. 2 satellite radio company.
Music is what still matters for DARS. And when it comes to
music programming, XM has Sirius beat on several fronts. (The
exception is heavy metal, as many XM defectors - and new
Sirius devotees - keep reminding the editors.)

*Too Early for Big Telco Successes - Video plans for the big
telcos will still be under development in 2006. SBC/AT&T will
be hindered by issues tied to Microsoft's IPTV technology,
unless the telco dumps the software giant and moves in another
direction. Verizon has a handful of FiOS TV markets, and
appears to be moving in the right direction, albeit a bit
carefully (maybe too carefully).

*But Watch Out for Small Telcos - Some small and medium-sized
telcos are delivering video, along with advanced broadband
and voice services. These small telcos also are in rural
areas, satellite TV's current stronghold. Watch the second
quarter when the National Rural Telecommunications Cooperative
(known for its sales of DirecTV and C-Band) rolls out an IPTV
video solution for its members.

*But That Doesn't Mean Telcos Will Abandon DBS - As Bruce
Leichtman of Leichtman Research reminds us, DBS and telcos
need each other. Telcos won't reach 100 percent of their
territories with fiber, and need DBS for a video solution.
And satellite TV needs telco voice and DSL to complete a
triple-play that includes small dish TV.

*All Eyes on Portals - What could really be troubling for
satellite TV and cable is what comes from D.C. regulators
next year. Federal Communications Commission Chairman Kevin
Martin's push for a la carte and family tiers will gain the
most attention, but don't forget multicast. Martin, more or
less, is a friend of the broadcasters. And this year
broadcasters claimed one multicast victory: The FCC's August
decision to require satellite TV to deliver multicast signals
from local broadcasters in Alaska and Hawaii beginning in
2007. Are more multicast mandates on the way?

Weblog at: <http://weblog.warpspeed.com>



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