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more on CNN special on Iraq war intelligence failures
From: David Farber <dave () farber net>
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 13:55:12 -0400
Begin forwarded message: From: chodge5 () utk edu Date: August 25, 2005 12:57:47 PM EDT To: "Robert C. Atkinson" <rca53 () columbia edu> Cc: Rich Kulawiec <rsk () gsp org>, David Farber <dave () farber net> Subject: Re: [IP] more on CNN special on Iraq war intelligence failuresI think that public opposition to the war, and it cuts across ideological boundaries BTW, will play a much less significant role in Iraq than it did
in Vietnam. I think the situation on the ground is deteriorating faster than public opinion can react to it. I think it was a few weeks ago thatmembers of the Sadr Brigade walked into the office of the mayor of Baghdad and informed him that he was no longer mayor. Last week insurgents managed to disrupt power to the city for 24 hours (not that it's reliable anyway).
I think CNN reported that Baghdad is averaging 880 killings a month by death squads -- this is in addition to the casualties being reported as inflicted by insurgents. I haven't seen any reports lately, but I'd be very interested in hearing how many reporters actually leave the Green Zone to prepare their reports. I'd also like to hear something more up-to-date about the status of the road from Baghdad to the airport. My guess is that it has been for all intents and purposes shut down.I don't doubt that if insurgents lay siege to the city that allied forces could take it back by overwhelming force, but that would mean pretty much
destroying Baghdad in the process. I'm not sure that's really a viable option. And the Green Zone being inside the city.....I think that really is a complication. I have trouble imagining how anything like an Iraqi government could emerge from such a battle. I think you're right about our attitude to the soliders being different this time, but I don't think that's necessarily a good thing for thosesupporting the war. In Vietnam, the anti-war movement often took out their
frustration on soldiers for actions taken by the policymakers. I don'tthink that's the case any longer. Here in East Tennessee we have a lot of troops in Iraq -- two local men were buried last week, and the son of our
History Dept's secretary was killed last year, right before Christmas. This time I think we understand that those being killed are our friends and neighbors. When the local media interviewed the families and friends of those killed last week, they were given ample opportunity to speak about the President, the War, Cindy Sheehan, etc. They spoke about theirchildren, the love they had for their country, and their belief that they
were trying to make the world a better place. They expressed great sympathy for Sheehan and her loss. And with regard to Bush and the War, they were silent. (Our local Congressman, a fiscal and social conservative, was one of a handful of Republicans who voted against the war; he saw it as a ill-planned money pit. His approval rating this area was not affected at all, remaining somewhere in the mid to high 80s.) One final comment with regard to how we are viewing our troops this timearound. I think this time we are more sensitive to the fact, esp. here in
the South, that many of those enlisting, particularly in the NationalGuard and private militias like Blackwater, are doing so because they see
it as the only avenue open to them to emerge from poverty and to participate in the American Dream they see every night on TV. We deride suicide bombers in the Middle East whose families are awarded a payment for their sacrifice, but the decisions poor Americans are making in enlisting for the war should make all of us very uncomfortable. PS While I am very supportive of the anti-war movement -- and can't believe there isn't an active group on the Columbia campus -- I hopeHamilton Hall isn't trashed this time around. Some of my fondest memories
are of classes I had there. -c On Thu, 25 Aug 2005, Robert C. Atkinson wrote:
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 12:25:38 -0400 From: Robert C. Atkinson <rca53 () columbia edu> To: Rich Kulawiec <rsk () gsp org> Cc: David Farber <dave () farber net>, chodge5 () utk eduSubject: Re: [IP] more on CNN special on Iraq war intelligence failuresAgreed...unfortunately, that's why a "Tet-like" attack--large enemy formations taking and holding territory--is unlikely. Would the homefront support or opposition to the war be significantly changed by "moreof the same, just larger"? Rich Kulawiec wrote:On Wed, Aug 24, 2005 at 06:34:43PM -0400, Robert c. Atkinson wrote:If there is a "Tet like attack on Baghdad" will historyrepeat itself? The insurgents will be undoubtedley be annihilated ifthey stand and fight so the question is whether they would win the propaganda war?Ah, but there's the rub. I can't see the insurgents et.al. deciding to"stand and fight", because, as you point out, they'd be annihilated.I think they'll well aware of that. So if a major, coordinated attackcomes, I think it'll use hit-and-run tactics designed to disrupt infrastructure and inflict maximum casualties...not to actually take and hold any targets. I think it's also a pretty good bet that at least some of the attacks will be carried out in ways that makedefense/counter-attack carry a high risk of causing civilian casualties.---Rsk-- *************************************** Robert C. Atkinson Director of Policy Research Columbia Institute for Tele-Information (CITI) 1A Uris Hall, Columbia Business School 3022 Broadway New York, NY 10027-6902 212-854-7576 cell: 908-447-4201 ***************************************
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