Perspectives on Future S&T Workforce Projections

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: fyi () aip org
Date: June 29, 2004 4:37:15 PM EDT
To: farber () CENTRAL CIS UPENN EDU
Subject: FYI #87: Perspectives on Future S&T Workforce Projections
Reply-To: fyi () aip org

FYI
The American Institute of Physics Bulletin of Science Policy News
Number 87: June 29, 2004

Future S&T Workforce Projections: Two Perspectives

For many years, policymakers and experts in private industry and the
academic community have discussed the future S&T workforce in
America.  In reports and in testimony to congressional committees,
concerns have been raised about whether the number of
scientifically-trained workers will meet future labor demands.

When the National Science Board (http://www.nsf.gov/nsb/) released
"Science and Engineering Indicators 2004" in May
(http://www.aip.org/fyi/2004/070.html), the report was accompanied
by a two-page statement entitled  "An Emerging and Critical Problem
of the Science and Engineering Labor Force."  The full text of this
statement is below.

Following the release of this statement, Roman Czujko, Director of
the Statistical Research Center of the American Institute of Physics
(http://www.aip.org/statistics/) commented on the NBS statement in
the July issue of "APS News." Czujko's review is available at
http://www.aps.org/apsnews/0704/070413.cfm

The NSB statement follows:

"An Emerging and Critical Problem of the Science and Engineering
Labor Force,
A Companion to Science and Engineering Indicators 2004"

"Every two years the National Science Board supervises the
collection of a very broad set of data trends in science and
technology in the United States, which it publishes as Science and
Engineering Indicators (Indicators). In preparing Indicators 2004,
we have observed a troubling decline in the number of U.S. citizens
who are training to become scientists and engineers, whereas the
number of jobs requiring science and engineering (S&E) training
continues to grow. Our recently published report entitled The
Science and Engineering Workforce/Realizing America's Potential (NSB
03-69, 2003) comes to a similar conclusion. These trends threaten
the economic welfare and security of our country.

"If the trends identified in Indicators 2004 continue undeterred,
three things will happen. The number of jobs in the U.S. economy
that require science and engineering training will grow; the number
of U.S. citizens prepared for those jobs will, at best, be level;
and the availability of people from other countries who have science
and engineering training will decline, either because of limits to
entry imposed by U.S. national security restrictions or because of
intense global competition for people with these skills. The United
States has always depended on the inventiveness of its people in
order to compete in the world marketplace. Now, preparation of the
S&E workforce is a vital arena for national competitiveness.

"Even if action is taken today to change these trends, the reversal
is 10 to 20 years away. The students entering the science and
engineering workforce in 2004 with advanced degrees decided to take
the necessary math courses to enable this career path when they were
in middle school, up to 14 years ago. The students making that same
decision in middle school today won't complete advanced training for
science and engineering occupations until 2018 or 2020. If action is
not taken now to change these trends, we could reach 2020 and find
that the ability of U.S. research and education institutions to
regenerate has been damaged and that their preeminence has been lost
to other areas of the world.

"There Are No Quick Fixes

"There is general agreement that the science and technology
enterprise, built on people with skills in S&E, is of vital
importance to the nation's health, security, and prosperity. There
is less recognition of the corollary: that continued production of a
workforce with skills in science and engineering requires sustained
support at a national level.

"Resources to develop an S&E workforce are not like the money
supply, where changes can bring measurable response in days or
weeks. Years or decades of effort are needed to build facilities for
education, train faculty, and support students through an
educational pipeline of 16 years or more. Any significant increase
in the number of U.S. citizens who become scientists and engineers
requires sustained long-term commitment.

"Trends in the Science and Engineering Workforce

"The number of jobs requiring S&E skills in the U.S. labor force is
growing almost 5 percent per year. In comparison, the rest of the
labor force is growing at just over 1 percent. Before September 11,
2001, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projected that S&E
occupations would increase at three times the rate of all
occupations. The rise projected by the BLS was 2.2 million,
representing a 47 percent increase in the number of S&E jobs by
2010. The rates of increase between 1980 and 2000 ranged from 18
percent for the life sciences to 123 percent for jobs in math and
computer science (all data are from Indicators 2004, Chapter 3,
unless otherwise noted).

"The average age of the S&E workforce is rising. Many of those who
entered the expanding S&E workforce in the 1960s and 1970s (the baby
boom generation) are expected to retire in the next 20 years, and
their children are not choosing careers in S&E in the same numbers
as their parents (Indicators 2004, Overview). The percentage of
women, for example, choosing math and computer science careers fell
4 percentage points between 1993 and 1999.

"Growth in the S&E labor force has been maintained at a rate well
above the rate of producing S&E degrees because a large number of
foreign-born S&E graduates have migrated to the United States. The
proportion of foreign-born students in S&E fields and workers in S&E
occupations continues to rise steadily. Persons born outside the
United States accounted for 14 percent of all S&E occupations in
1990. Between 1990 and 2000 the proportion of foreign-born people
with bachelor's degrees in S&E occupations rose from 11 to 17
percent; the proportion of foreign-born with master's degrees rose
from 19 to 29 percent; and the proportion of foreign-born with PhDs
in the S&E labor force rose from 24 to 38 percent.

"Could the News Get Worse?

"By attracting scientists and engineers born and trained in other
countries to the United States to work, we have maintained the
growth of the S&E labor force without a commensurate increase in
support for the long-term costs of training and attracting native
U.S citizens to these fields. Two trends are operating to disrupt
this equilibrium; thus, this shortcut to a trained workforce is not
likely to continue.

"Global competition: Since the 1980s other countries have increased
investment in S&E education and the S&E workforce at higher rates
than the United States has. Between 1993 and 1997 the OECD countries
(Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, a group of
40 nations with highly developed market economies) increased their
number of S&E research jobs 23 percent, more than twice the 11
percent increase in S&E research jobs in the United States.

"Slower entry: Visas for students and S&E workers have been issued
more slowly since the events of September 11, owing to both
increased security restrictions and a drop in applications. The U.S.
State Department issued 20 percent fewer visas for foreign students
in 2001 than in 2000, and the rate fell further between 2001 and
2002.

"Recommendations

"From parents to the Federal leadership, Americans are working to
improve education in the United States. The people who will fill the
nation's science and technology jobs 20 years from now are currently
in school. They will choose advanced training in colleges and
universities sometimes far from their home communities and, in still
other communities, will contribute to the labor force over decades.
The investments involved in growing a workforce trained in science
and engineering must be made at local, state, and national levels,
and in every region.

"We all share responsibility with our local communities to make
quality education in math and science a priority and to recognize
the impact this education will have on the national workforce far
into the future. We share responsibility with our states to make
colleges and universities strong and to make science and technology
education accessible to all the citizens who choose them. The
Federal Government has primary responsibility for supporting higher
education in science and technology at levels that allow the study
of science or engineering, and future careers in these fields, to be
competitively attractive with other fields. If the Federal
Government ensures that parents see science and engineering careers
as promising practical choices for their children's futures, those
parents will insist on quality education in the precollege years.
Quality education in math and science is everyone's challenge and
responsibility. The nation's economic welfare and security are at
stake."

###############
Richard M. Jones
Media and Government Relations Division
The American Institute of Physics
fyi () aip org    http://www.aip.org/gov
(301) 209-3094
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