Native American Vote Could Decide Senate Majority, Presidential Election

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne () warpspeed com>
Date: June 22, 2004 1:10:55 AM EDT
To: Dewayne-Net Technology List <dewayne-net () warpspeed com>
Subject: [Dewayne-Net] Native American Vote Could Decide Senate 
Majority, Presidential Election
Reply-To: dewayne () warpspeed com



[Note:  This item comes from reader Robert Berger.  DLH]

> From: "Robert J. Berger" <rberger () ibd com>
> Date: June 21, 2004 6:56:22 PM PDT
> To: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne () warpspeed com>, Dave Farber 
> <dave () farber net>
> Subject: Native American Vote Could Decide Senate Majority, 
> Presidential Election
>
> Indian Vote Could Decide Senate Majority, Presidential Election
>     Jerry Reynolds
>     Indian Country Today
> <http://www.indiancountry.com/index.php?1087567876>
>      Friday 18 June 2004
>
>      It is still early for the 2004 presidential elections, early 
> enough
> that every crystal ball is bound to be cloudy.
>
>      Even so, this much can be said with certainty: events have fallen 
> out
> in such a way as to position the Indian vote for decisive influence on 
> Nov.
> 2. In fact, the Native vote has never been so crucial to the prospects 
> of a
> president, nor to the majority party in the Senate.
>
>      This is due to two factors: a polarization in American politics 
> that
> has led each presidential candidate to concede the electoral vote in 
> about
> 30 states to his rival, as a foregone conclusion; and an anticipated 
> tight
> election in which the winner, as in 2000, may be crowned by only a 
> handful
> of electoral votes.
>
>      Those votes will come from 16 or 17 so-called "battleground 
> states,"
> states that were decided by 6 percent of the vote or less in 2000. 
> (Another
> three or four states, namely Colorado, Delaware, Louisiana and perhaps 
> New
> Jersey, lean Republican or Democrat now, but could become battleground
> states if the other party focuses resources on putting them into play.)
>
>      Among the current battleground states, where the candidates are
> concentrating a majority of their time and money, Indian people hold 
> the
> "swing vote" - the key few percentage points of total popular votes 
> that
> could swing electoral votes whichever way they are cast - in a handful 
> of
> them.
>
>      Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin, 
> Minnesota,
> Michigan - in each of these, the presidential race is expected to be
> exceedingly close, as they were in 2004 with Bush taking the electoral 
> votes
> of Arizona and Nevada by 5 and 4 percent respectively, and Democratic
> candidate Al Gore landing the others, New Mexico, Oregon and Wisconsin 
> by
> less than 1 percent, Minnesota by 2 percent, Washington by 4 percent 
> and
> Michigan by 5.
>
>      And in each, the Native population is positioned to provide the 
> few
> percentage points of the total popular vote that would deliver 
> electoral
> votes to the victor.
>
>      In several of these states and South Dakota as well, Senate races 
> will
> also be close-run. South Dakota provided a presage of that scenario on 
> June
> 1. Stephanie Herseth, a Democrat, defeated Republican Larry Diedrich 
> in a
> special election to fill the seat of William Janklow, forced to resign 
> from
> the House of Representatives following his conviction for felony
> manslaughter in a traffic death. Herseth's margin of victory was 2,981 
> votes
> out of 261,773, or 51 percent to 49. Indian voters cast ballots in 
> record
> numbers, more than doubling their turnout in several Indian-populous
> counties that include the Rosebud, Pine Ridge, Cheyenne River Sioux and
> Standing Rock reservations. The Indian vote is widely credited with
> delivering a Senate seat to Democrat Tim Johnson, by only 524 ballots, 
> in
> 2002, and both parties said it delivered again on June 1.
>
>      Tom Davis, a Virginia Republican in the House, said that without 
> the
> Indian vote, the Republican candidate would have prevailed. Tom 
> Daschle,
> Democratic Minority Leader in the Senate, called the special election 
> "yet
> another race where the Native vote made the difference."
>
>      Herseth will fill the remainder of Janklow's term before facing 
> the
> voters again for a full term in November. In the meantime, she becomes 
> the
> 205th Democrat in the House, joining 228 Republicans and one 
> Independent.
>
>      The Senate is still more closely divided, with 51 Republicans, 48
> Democrats and one Independent.
>
>      Though the presidential race will be the focus of the Nov. 4 
> elections,
> the House and Senate contests are no less important. In both chambers, 
> the
> majority party dominates committee structure, deciding which bills 
> come up
> for a vote and which are tabled, which "riders" get a hearing and 
> which do
> not. In addition, the more votes a minority party can count on, the 
> more
> likely it will be to keep majority bills from coming to a vote through
> parliamentary maneuvers such as the filibuster, or deliberately 
> prolonged
> debate. As the current 108th Congress so far proves on several counts, 
> even
> the fate legislation favored by a sitting president, in a Congress his 
> party
> controls, may come to depend on good will from the minority party.
>
>      The unprecedented potential impact of the Indian vote in 2004 can 
> be
> reckoned from the simple fact that in some states, Indian voters can 
> swing
> the vote for both the presidency - and the majority party in the 
> Senate.
>
>      The National Congress of American Indians is spearheading efforts 
> to
> turn out more Indian voters in 2004 than ever before. NCAI takes note 
> of the
> following figures:
>
>      • In Alaska, Alaska Natives make up 16 percent of eligible 
> voters. Lisa
> Murkowski, a Republican appointed to fill the Senate seat of her 
> father,
> Frank Murkowski, after he became the state's governor, is up for
> re-election.
>
>      • In Arizona, almost 300,000 Indians make up 5.7 percent of the 
> state's
> population.
>
>      • In Colorado, Indians make up 1.5 percent of the population. With
> Republican Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell retiring, one Senate seat is 
> open.
>
>      • In Michigan, Indians make up 1.3 percent of the state's 
> population;
> in Minnesota, 1.6 percent.
>
>      • In Nevada, where Republican Sen. Harry Reid is up for 
> re-election,
> the Indian percentage of the population is 2.1.
>
>      • In New Mexico, Indians are 10.5 percent of the population.
>
>      • In North Dakota, where Sen. Byron Dorgan, a Democrat, is up for
> re-election, Indians are 5.5 percent of the population.
>
>      • In Oklahoma, where Republican Sen. Don Nickles is up for 
> re-election,
> Native people make up 8 percent of the total population.
>
>      • In Oregon, where Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden is up for 
> re-election,
> Indians make up 2.5 percent of the state population.
>
>      • In South Dakota, 9 percent of the state population is Indian. 
> Sen.
> Tom Daschle, the Democratic Minority Leader, is up for re-election. As
> mentioned above, Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth, winner of a special
> election to the House of Representatives June 1, will face the voters 
> again
> in November.
>
>      • In Utah, where Republican Sen. Robert Bennett is up for 
> re-election,
> Indians make up 1.8 percent of the population.
>
>      • In Washington, where Democratic Sen. Patty Murray is up for
> re-election, Indians are 2.7 percent of the state's population.
>
>      • In Wisconsin, where Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold is up for
> re-election, Indians make up 1.3 percent of the population.
>
>      Of course, none of these races will be decided on Indian issues 
> alone.
> In Arizona and New Mexico, the Hispanic vote will play a large role. In
> Nevada, President Bush's decision to make Yucca Mountain, northwest of 
> Las
> Vegas, the national nuclear waste dump is not expected to play well 
> with the
> state's Republican-leaning electorate. In the industrial economy 
> enclaves of
> Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, jobs are said to be the major 
> issue, but
> President Bush's approval rating is declining almost commensurate with 
> a
> resurgent job market. In Oregon and Washington, Democratic challenger 
> John
> Kerry is expected to benefit from the coastal states' environmental
> concerns. And throughout the battleground states, recent polls have 
> found
> Arab citizens abandoning Bush.
>
>      But the closer the 2004 elections become, the more prominently 
> loom
> Indian people as holders of a decisive swing vote. If there is one 
> issue
> that unites all Indian voters as they weigh the different candidates, 
> NCAI
> has suggested it: "We will not support candidates who do not support 
> our
> sovereignty."

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