ITU Telecom World 2003

[Dave Farber <dave () farber net>]

TELECOM WORLD 2003

Geneva, Switzerland

October 12-18, 2003





Broadband access, Wi-Fi, highly featured color imaging cell phones and 
wireless data dominated the International Telecommunications Union Telecom 
World 2003, which just ended a week of meetings and exhibits at the Palexpo 
in Geneva, Switzerland.  Approximately 50,000 people attended, and there 
were about 1,000 exhibits.  This is a prompt and concise report of my 
perceptions from the Forum.



The sessions at Telecom World 2003 were structured into Business, Policy 
and Technology Forums.  Many of the CEOs of major communications and 
computer companies were keynote speakers or various panelists.



More than 300 speakers came from about 50 countries.  Some suggested that 
the decline in the telecommunications business was over, and there was a 
resurgence beginning; but they could not substantiate it.  Most of the CEOs 
were more guarded.  Almost all of the attendees were men; virtually every 
person was dressed in business attire wearing a tie.  Headsets with 
simultaneous translation were available in French, Spanish and English for 
every session.  Selected sessions offered Chinese, Japanese and Korean.



A Youth Forum was introduced.  University people from all over the world 
discussed technology, policy and finance and had working groups with some 
of the industry leaders.  The students attended some of the forums.



Key comments by some of the keynoters and panelists follow:

      1.       Yoshio Utsumi, (secretary general of ITU) said of the 1.5 
billion families in the world, one-third has fixed or wireless phone, 
one-third has fixed and wireless and one-third has neither.

      2.       Carly Fiorina (chairman and CEO of Hewlett-Packard) said 
that new technologies permit everybody to advance together.  She asked that 
governments make targeted investments and companies focus on innovation, 
particularly emphasizing simplicity.  She asserted that every process in 
the future will be digital, mobile and virtual.

      3.       Xudong Wang (Minister of Information Industry of the 
People's Republic of China) said that China had turned a backward 
telecommunications network into the biggest telecommunications network in 
the world with 500 million phones in place and 68 million internet access 
points.

      4.       Nikesh Arora (board member of T-Mobile) said that the rules 
of the voice world are clear, but the data world will require providers and 
regulators.  Some people are trying to apply the rules of voice to data, 
causing problems.

      5.       Keiji Tachikawa (CEO of NTT DoCoMo) asserted that the 
growth of mobile subscribers depended on going from voice to non-voice, 
fixed to mobile and from domestic to international.

      6.       Sizwe Nxasana (CEO of Telkom SA) stated that Africa was the 
fastest growing telecom market in the world, and its success was developing 
an infrastructure that now covers the whole continent.

      7.       Bill Gates (chairman of Microsoft Corporation) gave a 
graphic demonstration of broadband and mobile integration.  By the end of 
the decade Gates thought every home would have broadband and 
Wi-Fi.  Microsoft is developing the software to connect web services to the 
mobile service providers.  He introduced Ian Maxwell, strategy director of 
Vodafone, and announced a relationship between the two companies.  They 
demonstrated the power of their software with expanded Wi-Fi integrating 
phone and data systems.  Three assistants on the stage did captivating 
demonstrations of web interfaces with mobile devices.  Maxwell showed a 
"dongle" that integrates a SIM card with a USB connection.

      8.       Pat Russo, (chairman and CEO of Lucent) projected the 
convergence of the two key wireless technologies, namely, 3G and Wi-Fi as 
the most important configuration for future applications.

      9.       Arun Sharon (CEO of Vodafone) gave a strong warning to 
their vendors to focus on interoperability and said, "We have to satisfy 
our customer, and you have to satisfy us."  Vodafone has 120 million 
subscribers spread across 26 countries, the largest GSM provider in the world.

 10.       Martin Cooper (the recognized inventor of the cell phone) 
expects 3G cell phones to be in different configurations, formats and 
applications.  This is not the position taken by the manufacturers and 
service providers.



The following comments and observations are not prioritized.

      1.       The Business, Technology and Policy Forums had many 
participants from Europe, Asia and Africa and less than 20% from the United 
States.

      2.       American exhibitors, speakers and attendees were 
significantly less visible than at previous ITU Telecom Forums.  Motorola 
and Lucent were absent.  Hewlett-Packard, Cisco and Nortel were present 
with relatively modest exhibits.  Microsoft had the largest and most 
visible American booth.

      3.       Samsung, NEC, Huanwei, Sanyo, Mitsubishi Electric, 
Panasonic, ZTE, Sharp, Toshiba, Kyocera and Sony had very elaborate exhibits.

      4.       There were many manufacturers demonstrating various forms 
and shapes of wireless devices from smaller than one inch square to six 
inches, with cameras, color displays, PDAs and voice capabilities.

      5.       Traditional wired telephones, conventional switched voice 
circuits and custom data networks were rarely mentioned.

      6.       The internet presence was ubiquitous and taken for 
granted.  Internet governance and protection of intellection property over 
the internet was discussed.

      7.       Korea has the highest penetration of broadband as a 
percentage of its population.

      8.       Japan has the greatest number of the most sophisticated 3G 
cell phone-cameras in use.

      9.       The USA has the greatest number of cell phone subscribers.

 10.       Many speakers commented that we continue to be more and more 
networked and wireless.

 11.       One of the challenges of the wireless environment is to 
accomplish high speed LANs that can deliver 100 million bits per second 
over wireless to be comparable with a switched 100 million bits per second 
Ethernet.  An important problem is that the overhead typically consumes 
about half of the data rate.

 12.       A challenge is to accomplish videoconferencing over the 
internet.  Videoconferencing has stalled because of the expense of ISDN 
systems and the expense of wide bandwidth access.

 13.       The service providers spent more than $100 billion on 3G 
licenses.  Time Magazine (Oct. 13, 2003) said 3G was supposed to 
revolutionize mobile communications, but it failed to connect.  In fact, 
only 1% of the world's one billion mobile phones have 3G capability.

 14.       Some companies continue to be profitable through this period 
and in spite of the world economic environment.

 15.       The satellite communications companies' floor space was about 
two-thirds of the area used in 1999, more than might have been expected, 
considering the financial condition of these companies.



Following are a number of interesting telecommunications facts, not from 
the Forum, but from the homework that I did prior to going to Telecom World 
2003.


   * Total fixed landline revenue peaked at $477 billion in 2000 and is 
now shrinking.
   * Mobile has grown to 48% of the total voice revenue in the world and 
wireless users now outnumber fixed lines worldwide.
   * Although not yet mature, and not yet good enough quality, voice over 
the internet is an emerging technology.  The internet carries 11.5% of 
international calls now and at a much lower cost per minute.
   * In the USA there are about 147 million cell phones, compared with 187 
million traditional landlines.
   * Wireless is shaking up the system of universal service and the 
telecommunication monopoly.  A structure is growing where service is a 
private contract between the company and the individual customers, with no 
guarantees and no geographic constraints.  With number portability, 
wireless really becomes competitive.
   * Trendsetting cell phones have calendars, contact managers, global 
roaming, camera, MP3, email and various kinds of small 
keyboards.  Ultimately, all of the different devices can be connected over 
one network.
   * TeliaSonera, the Finnish mobile phone and landline company advocates 
a shift of all of its voice calls to wireless, reserving its 3.2 million 
copper lines into Finnish homes for broadband connections only.
   * Ovum Ltd., a London telecom research firm, reports that although the 
number of landlines in the world is still creeping up, wireless is growing 
six times as fast.  Further, the number of mobile subscribers now exceeds 
fixed lines.
   * Broadband has become the most valuable opportunity of the fixed 
landline operators.  Broadband had a slow start by muddled regulations, 
immature technology and skittish financial markets.  Now the number of DSL 
lines worldwide, will nearly double this year to 36 million.  Broadband is 
also supported by cable television operators offering high-speed 
modems.  In the USA, broadband is being developed by bundling this service 
with other conventional telephone services.
   * Successful technologies fade and their applications grow stronger.
   * One of the continuing challenges is to develop improved batteries; 
but this was not mentioned at the Forum.



A wireless revolution has happened.  I could find only one conventional 
phone booth in the giant Palexpo.  Many of the participants, exhibitors and 
speakers carried cell phones, which were in heavy usage.  The cell phone 
coverage was superb.  The Swiss cellular provider was able to handle the 
heavy call traffic.  I did not experience a single cut-off.  Swisscom 
provided excellent hot spot coverage in the whole Palexpo and in 13 entire 
hotels, not just their lobbies.



At Telecom 1999, telecommunications companies seemed to rule the business 
world.  Recall Alcatel tried to take over Lucent.  Deutsche Telekom tried 
to buy Telecom Italia.  At the 1999 Forum, many companies spent millions of 
dollars building three story exhibition stands, and Geneva taxis were 
wrapped in Nokia ads.  This year, neither Alcatel nor Nokia were 
present.  Hotel rooms were available in Geneva, whereas in the past, many 
people had to drive 50 miles to get a room.  This time, taxis were waiting 
for the people, rather than lines of people waiting for taxis.



If you would like more information, please contact me by phone or email.




Robert J. Potter

R. J. Potter Company
Williams Square, Suite 1110
5215 N. O'Connor Boulevard
Irving, Texas 75039

TEL  (972) 869-8270
FAX  (972) 869-6593
CELL (972) 489-5400
E-MAIL RJPotter () RJPotter com
www.RJPotter.com


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