Guardian: America in the vice

[Dave Farber <dave () farber net>]

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From: Seth Grimes <grimes () altaplana com>
Reply-To: Seth Grimes <grimes () altaplana com>
Date: Sat, 29 Mar 2003 06:46:46 -0800 (PST)
To: dave () farber net
Subject: Guardian: America in the vice

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,925032,00.html

America in the vice

Lives and careers are on the line in Iraq

Saturday March 29, 2003
The Guardian

A vice is slowly beginning to close on US and British political leaders
who ordered or justified the launching of war on Iraq. This potentially
fatal squeeze is the product of two opposed dynamics. One is the dawning
realisation that the war will not be over quickly, may indeed drag on for
months, and will certainly not be the "cakewalk" predicted by Kenneth
Adelman of the Pentagon's infamous defence policy board. The other is the
prospect of an accelerating humanitarian crisis.

Several factors, notably fierce Iraqi resistance and US miscalculations
about the number of ground combat forces required, have forced a slowdown
in the offensive. Around Basra, indeed, and south of Baghdad, the advance
has effectively been halted for several days. A tactical reassessment is
now under way against a backdrop of escalating political recriminations in
Washington and increasingly, between London and the US. The top US
infantry commander in Iraq, Lieutenant-General William Wallace, admits the
campaign is not progressing as expected, echoing concerns expressed by
retired senior generals. Whitehall defence officials are urging the sort
of patient, circumspect approach adopted by British forces outside
Basra. The evident fear is that any precipitate ground assault on Baghdad
and a subsequent descent into street-fighting by outnumbered, fatigued and
poorly supplied US troops could be disastrous.

Even the hawkish US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld, principal author of
the controversial "combat lite" strategy and a man whose reputation and
career are very much on the line, appears to be hesitating. The champion
of the "forward-leaning" posture is now in danger of falling flat on his
face. His boss, George Bush, who at Camp David this week seemed to be
asleep while standing up, insists a relentless America will prevail "no
matter how long it takes". Down in Tampa, that sounds like leadership. But
it is actually an amazing admission that the US military behemoth no
longer entirely controls the timetable or pace of a war begun at a moment
and in a place of its own particular choosing.

That the Pentagon has been obliged to double its ground combat forces
after only a week, and must now wait for them to deploy, is a matter for
considerable political shock and awe. This military deceleration now runs
directly counter to that other powerful dynamic: a quickening human
tragedy. Put simply, the longer the war rages, the more acute the
suffering of the Iraqi people will become. And while the regime remains
undefeated, the more deeply problematic will be efforts to distribute aid
and the more furious the international outcry.

The prospect of Iraqis dying in large numbers from dehydration, or
malnutrition or disease is still hopefully some way off; the UN estimates
a five-week food supply. But problems with refugees and tainted water
supply are beginning to emerge around Basra and Nassiriya. Aid agencies,
unable to enter most of the country while fighting continues, say they
cannot assess the status of the population. However much money is raised,
and the UN has set a $2.2bn overall target, it is useless as long as
organised, safe distribution remains impractical. Last night's decision to
give the UN secretary-general temporary control of a resumed oil-for-food
programme and $10bn worth of uncompleted contracts will also have a merely
symbolic, political importance if secure distribution routes to 45,000
outlets are not swiftly reopened.

The Iraqi regime is not helping, cynically using the plight of civilians
as a propaganda tool. The US military and the US government's aid agency
are not helping either by trying to direct the relief effort and thereby
potentially compromising independent NGOs with far superior
expertise. Yesterday's arrival of the British aid ship, Sir Galahad, at
Umm Qasr, while welcome in itself, highlights another difficulty. This is
Iraq's only deep-water port, the size of Dover. It will have to cope with
the competing demands of military and humanitarian supplies for the
duration and beyond.

Britain has earmarked 210m for humanitarian work in a total war budget of
3bn; the US $2.4bn, out of $74.7bn. Yet even with the best will in the
world, aid efforts will have limited impact while the conflict continues
inconclusively. This is why, with the war lengthening and slowing, Iraq's
human crisis seems certain to intensify. This is the inexorably closing
vice that has the power to destroy thousands of innocent lives and some
very prominent political careers.



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