IP: FCC to vote on phone-number crunch

[David Farber <dfarber () earthlink net>]

-----Original Message-----
From: Ari Ollikainen <Ari () OLTECO com>
Date: Fri, 29 Mar 2002 12:18:56 
To: farber () cis upenn edu
Subject: FCC to vote on phone-number crunch

        Half the US numbers space has been used up...300/660 area
        codes.

        Number portability seen as partial solution (especially for
        cell phone customers) although carriers are balking at the
        projected extra cost.

        One possible solution is to expand from 10 digits to 12.

        Interim solution from FCC is limiting number block acquisition
        to 1000 numbers at a time instead of the previous 10000...


        Does this remind anyone of the IPv4->IPv6 struggles?


FCC to vote on phone-number crunch
http://news.com.com/2100-1033-870832.html
By Ben Charny
Staff Writer, CNET News.com
March 28, 2002, 12:55 PM PT

Cell phones, fax machines and pagers are dialing through the
country's supply of phone numbers.

The Federal Communications Commission, aware of the dwindling supply
of 10-digit phone numbers and complaints from customers forced to
change numbers, has already given telecom carriers a November
deadline for allowing cell phone customers to keep their phone
numbers if they switch service providers.

But carriers have balked at the cost, which they put at $1 billion
for the industry, and the FCC has already granted several deadline
extensions to allow the carriers to make more pressing changes.

The FCC is due to vote any time on a petition from Verizon Wireless
that the FCC drop the plan entirely or exempt Verizon from the
program. Other carriers have filed papers supporting Verizon's
petition.

But proponents of the plan, who say keeping your phone number is a
customer benefit that could increase competition among carriers by
making it easier to switch, say Verizon and other carriers should not
be granted further delays. Carriers say the industry is already
competitive, with a high number of customers switching carriers even
though they don't have the option of keeping their numbers.

Although the carriers and the FCC have focused on the cost and
competitiveness aspects of the debate, some backers say there's
another reason to allow people to hold on to the same number: The
pool of 10-digit phone numbers is shrinking.

"Some say the end is coming sooner rather than later," said Frank
Colaco, a senior area code relief planner for the North American
Numbering Plan Administration (NANPA), which distributes phone
numbers in North America.

Quest for more numbers
New U.S. government reports estimate that the United States, Canada,
Guam, Bermuda and Trinidad will run out of 10-digit numbers by the
year 2025.

In the United States, most major cities have already gone through
several area code additions, aggravating customers forced to change
letterhead, business cards and billing records. And for some, simply
losing the cachet of a particular area code, such as 212 for
Manhattan, was enough to raise their hackles. The 310 area code in
Los Angeles, as well as Raleigh, N.C.'s 919, are both expected to be
exhausted by next year. New Mexico's 505, the state's only area code,
will run out by 2004.

The idea that the carriers could run out of numbers is tempered by
the knowledge that carriers hold huge blocks of area codes in reserve
and that there are working plans to improve technology such as the
merging of Internet and telephone technologies to reduce the number
of phone numbers needed to connect digital devices.

But one industry organization has already drawn up a plan for a
12-digit future. Eight years in the making, a report by the Alliance
For Telecommunications Industry Solutions (ATIS) proposes adding an
extra number to every new area code and dialing prefix. Instead of a
telephone number like 415-555-1212, the number would be
4151-5555-1212.

Adding the two digits would create a well of 640 billion more
telephone numbers. But telephone companies would need at least 10
years of work to make the appropriate changes, according to the
report.

"Anything that relies on a telephone number would have to be changed
to accept the additional digits," Colaco said. "You remember Y2K?
That was big. This will be big."

History has shown that even smaller changes to telephone numbers
have caused problems for carriers. Several years ago area codes
changed to include something other than a 1 or 0 as the second digit.
Some companies discovered much of their equipment was hard coded
to read only a 1 or 0 in that part of a telephone number, so they needed
to buy new phone networks.

But others say simply conserving the existing numbers is the best
tactic. The industry should continue to keep using conservation
measures that have been in place since 1998, such as rationing
telephone numbers, said Lori Messing, director of numbering issues
for telephone lobbyists the Cellular Telecommunications and Internet
Association.

To this end, the FCC has stepped in and told telecommunication
carriers they won't be able to buy telephone numbers in blocks of
10,000 anymore. Instead, it will be blocks of 1,000. Messing said the
industry supports the effort.

"Anytime you have a report developed for eight years by the industry, 
people are going to take it seriously and look at it," Messing said
of the ATIS report.
"But we're in no danger of exhaust at this point."

She said it would be better to rely on NANPA, which gets reports every six
months from state public utility commissions and carriers about how
many telephone numbers they need and have used. If an area code
appears to be in danger of running out, NANPA becomes just like the
Federal Emergency Management Agency. It takes charge and can, for
example, "reclaim" unused phone numbers from carriers or lower the
number of area codes it is willing to provide.
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Dilbert's words of wisdom #18: Never argue with an idiot. They drag
you down to their level then beat you with experience.
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        OLTECO                    Ari Ollikainen
        P.O. BOX 20088            Networking Architecture and Technology
        Stanford, CA              Ari () OLTECO com
        94309-0088                415.517.3519

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