IP: more on Spectrum Policy Makers shocked at 802.11 Card sales

[David Farber <dfarber () earthlink net>]

-----Original Message-----
From: mo () ccr org
Date: Fri, 26 Apr 2002 07:41:02 -0400From: "M
To: farber () cis upenn edu
Subject: Re: IP: Spectrum Policy Makers shocked at 802.11 Card sales


ah yes - once again we see the power of transition from centralized
planning to biological process.  

biology will out-innovate the centralized planning "Department
of Sanctified New Ideas" approach every time if given half a
chance.  once the law of large numbers kicks in, even in the
presence of Sturgeon's Law ("90% of *everything* is crap."),
enough semi-good things happen that the progeny are at least
interesting and some are quite vigorous.

"Nature works by conducting a zillion experiments in parallel
and *most* of them die, but enough survive to keep the game
interesting."  (the "most of them die" part was, alas, overlooked
by rabid investors in the latter 90s)

this is how the commercial internet took off and this remains the
central value of that network - 

        you don't need permission to innovate

you get an idea and you can try it quickly. if it fails, fine -
one more bad idea to not reinvent later.  but if it works,
is takes off and can spread like wildfire.  instant messaging
is a good example, even though ultimately complicated by
ego and hubris.  various "peer-to-peer" things an even better one.

Wifi is evolving the same way.  a bit of *great* enabling
technology made possible by a fortuitous policy accident in
years long past, a few remarkable hacks, a huge perceived
value proposition (and i don't mean "free beer"), and presto!
you have a real party going on in the Petri dish.

clarifying note: during my tenure at UUNET, i described the
real business as operating a giant Petri dish - we kept it
warm, we pumped in nutrients, and we made it bigger when it
filled up.  and people paid us money to sit in the dish and
see what happened.

and so it goes

        -mo

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