IP: Don't Be A Deer

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

> Date: Fri, 22 Jun 2001 21:20:03 GMT
> From: dave () scripting com (DaveNet email)
> Subject: Don't Be A Deer
>
> DaveNet essay, "Don't Be A Deer", released on 6/22/2001; 2:20:19 PM Pacific.
> -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> ***Good afternoon
>
> Good afternoon, a short piece before a summer weekend, some things to 
> think about while gardening, beach-going and barbecuing.
>
> Last weekend talks broke off between AOL and Microsoft on renewing their 
> bundling deal for Windows XP. AOL has the content advantage and Microsoft 
> has the technology and developer advantage. Microsoft knows how to entice 
> developers into locked trunks, or at least they used to; and AOL has the 
> huge Time-Warner content machine to churn out stuff for people to read, 
> watch and listen to; but AOL is not a developer-oriented culture.
>
> Earlier this week a group of Silicon Valley venture capitalists met with 
> Microsoft to learn about opportunities developing around and on top of 
> Microsoft's new platform based on Hailstorm, SOAP and XML. They took a 
> poll of the attendees, forty percent said they'd be comfortable investing 
> alongside Microsoft. That's either high or low depending on how you look 
> at it. I think it's high.
>
> Meanwhile the Smart Tags mess provides a clue to the way the new Microsoft 
> will work. More and more over time they will restrict and contrain and 
> mold the Web to offset AOL's content advantage. The big question is will 
> AOL be able to meet Microsoft in creating relationships with developers? 
> As much as I'd like to believe that AOL could, it's a fantastic 
> operational and marketing company, they have little experience working 
> with developers, on any basis, with lots of lock-in or lots of freedom.
>
> So I've come to see the next few years as a period when the Web will fork 
> into possibly three different incompatible environments: One dominated by 
> Microsoft, one by AOL, and one not dominated at all. I will not of course 
> develop for any dominated platform. I insist that the Web is the platform 
> without a platform vendor. I encourage all others, Microsoft and AOL 
> included, to get behind this idea because long-term that's how it will 
> shake out.
>
> Genies don't go back in bottles, Microsoft's glory days are behind them. 
> Windows dominated in the early 90s because Apple and IBM left a vacuum and 
> GUIs were at the leading edge and not yet a commodity. Now the Web is 
> maturing, and no matter how much Ballmer screams "XML XML!" it either 
> isn't going to happen or it isn't going to gel around Microsoft. Microsoft 
> only knows dominance, they've proven it yet again, and XML is not about 
> dominance, just as the Web could not flourish with the kind of control 
> that Microsoft wants to impose now.
>
> I am absolutely sure Microsoft will retract Smart Tags. Give it two weeks 
> before the major non-AOL publications figure out what's going on. And 
> don't forget the US government. I doubt if the White House or the Library 
> of Congress want their websites annotated by a technology company. 
> Remember they have tanks and nukes and trillions of dollars. Microsoft 
> certainly has balls, but they must not understand how big the Web has gotten.
>
> ***Don't be a deer
>
> This is not a good time to be a deer caught in the headlights. Remember, 
> for all the supposed invincibility of Microsoft, they have never been able 
> to blaze their own trail, they always needed something to catch up to, and 
> of course now that is AOL. When past adversaries have lost to Microsoft 
> it's because they let Microsoft call the shots. They waited for the dust 
> to settle, and by the time that happened, their products were dead, their 
> customers had moved on, and no one cared what they wanted. The list is 
> long and well-recited.
>
> However, in all the history, there's no example of an adversary of 
> Microsoft's who truly zigged to their zag, took advantage of the 
> opportunities they left behind, the unserved constituencies. Netscape 
> never had anything to say to Web developers. Sun tried to lock-in the Java 
> developers. It's never happened that an independent developer community 
> really banded together, for the good of all, to offer a true alternative 
> to what Microsoft was offering. Today Microsoft has more in common with 
> Ashton-Tate, unable to thwart the herd of developers jumping ship. 
> Microsoft brought the exodus on themselves, by crossing the will of the 
> Java developers, and now by trying to lock innocent Web publishers, large 
> and small, behind a wall of editorial annotation. They are always 
> undermining developers as they hype up their love of developers. When will 
> the rest of us get hip to this?
>
> In today's scene, to zig to Microsoft's zag would mean applying enough 
> resources, collectively, to produce several good alternatives to 
> Microsoft's browser, ones which don't carry the lock-in burden and don't 
> have to protect Microsoft Office. Such browsers would give more control to 
> writers, designers and programmers, as Microsoft is taking 1984ish steps 
> to take control for themselves, and would be a delightful writing tool far 
> more appropriate to today's work environment than the aging and bloated 
> Word, Powerpoint and Excel.
>
> In other words, the opportunities for the technology industry have never 
> been greater, but there's a lot of hard work to do, and you have to have a 
> winning philosophy and excellent technology. To win now, you can't be a 
> deer caught in the headlights, you have to stand tall, bet on technology, 
> move with conviction and work with others.
>
> That no Silicon Valley company, or group of companies, is in the running 
> for the Leader of the Web is a clue. It's time for us to re-think, 
> geographically and inclusively -- to work with other technology centers 
> around the world, and offer a great alternative to Microsoft's lock-in. 
> It's totally possible, there are no real secrets in what they're doing, we 
> just have to have the will to win.
>
> Dave Winer
>
> PS: I've changed the tagline at the bottom of each DaveNet email. It used 
> to say "It's even worse than it appears." Now it says "There's no time 
> like now." Gotta change with the times. ;->
>
> -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> (c) Copyright 1994-2001, Dave Winer. http://davenet.userland.com/.
> "There's no time like now."



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