IP: Jock Gill:s remarks at aipa98

[Dave Farber <farber () cis upenn edu>]

(I gave one of the two keynotes and will try to get my talk on the web as
RealAudio  Dave)


Dave,


IP readers might be interested in my remarks on "Meta Problems in the
Intelligence Community" at the AIPA98 event:




http://www.penfield-gill.com/presentations/mar98/AIPA98.html


How is the environment in which the Intelligence Community works
today different from that of the 1950s? Better or
worse? Why?


This lead to at least these five basic questions, which may
illuminate the topic at hand and which will shape our panel
today  [March 17th, 1998]:


1.  Is President Clinton getting better, higher "quality with better
timeliness", intelligence and military advice than either presidents
Kennedy or Johnson did in their days? Why do we think this? How do we
know?


2.  Is the Community creating maps which no longer give good guidance
- i.e. ones which describe yesterday's realities? Or perhaps these
maps do not recognize tomorrow's tectonic shifts? As a lay person, I
am reminded of the 'surprise' expressed when our maps did not plot
the break apart of the former Soviet union.


3.  Is the Community using obsolete map making tools and processes?
That is, what is the state of the community's intellectual tools? Are
they appropriate for the current set of challenges created by today's
'realities'?


4.  What are the metrics for success? Clearly they are more than a
simplistic, one dimensional concept such as profitability. But what
are they? Are they the right metrics?


5.  If the Community is one of map makers, does it have a vision of
where the country wants to be in 2020?  If we do not know where we
are going, how do we make maps which are about getting there? What
are our goals? Why?





--
____________________________________________________________________
Jock Gill
jgill () penfield-gill com


www.penfield-gill.com
____________________________________________________________________