IP: Re: internet use leveling off from Edupage (Two relies)

[David Farber <farber () cis upenn edu>]

From: hoffman () colette ogsm Vanderbilt Edu
To: farber () cis upenn edu




Dave:


This is utter nonsense!  We partnered with GVU on the 7th survey and both
Tom Novak and I were dismayed to see this ridiculous interpretation of some
of GVU's response percentages (not helped by GVU's own misinterpretation of
some of the latest Net surveys).


First, there are more than 30 million people on the Internet worldwide,
(indeed, there are more than 30 million people on the Internet in the UNITED
STATES), second, GVU'ssurvey is not representative and so cannot estimate
the number of users (or anything else) in the population, and finally, GVU's
survey DOES NOT SHOW that new user growth rates are stabilizing at 5% or any
other percentage.


The GVU survey gives us a great description of the more skilled, more
experienced user.  It is not representative of ALL Net users, in experience
levels or demographics, but does give us an exciting window into whata very
important group of Net users are doing and thinking.


We'll be posting the results of our analysis on the Project 2000 Web site by
the end of the summer and I'll be happy to send you the URL when it's ready.


Best,


DLH
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~
Professor Donna L. Hoffman
hoffman () colette ogsm vanderbilt edu
Owen Graduate School of Management          615-343-6904 voice
Vanderbilt University                       615-343-7177 fax
Nashville, TN 37203                         129.59.210.109 CU-SeeMe


Project 2000:      http://www2000.ogsm.vanderbilt.edu/
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~




> The number of new Internet users appears to be stabilizing, with growth
> rates hovering at less than 5%, according to a demographics study released
> last week by the Georgia Institute of Technology.  According to Tech's
> survey, the number of users is now around 30 million -- that's a good bit
> lower than Nielsen's recent estimate of 50 million.  "What brought people
> online were all the different service providers really gearing up," says a
> Tech researcher.  "We don't know whether it will pick up again.  There
> hasn't been that much change of the last three surveys."  (Tampa Tribune 16
> Jun 97)
>
>
> ******Remember  19 June in San Fran******
>
> Look at http://www.eff.org/fillmore


For this one I must comment that I do not have the time to research each
note I try to use reliable sources. Besides the IP readership does 
it for me :-)


X-Sender: grudin () paris ics uci edu
Date: Wed, 18 Jun 1997 21:50:14 +0100
To: David Farber <farber () cis upenn edu>
From: Jonathan Grudin <grudin () ics uci edu>
Subject: Better quickly retract the Edupage/Tampa T baloney you sent out...


I sometimes get your messages relayed to me. Some of them are interesting,
but in general I wish you did a little more following up on obvious looney
tunes, such as the "Internet use leveling off" Edupage article.


Whether they or the Tampa Tribune are responsible I don't know. The actual
survey results can be found in detail at:


http://www.cc.gatech.edu/gvu/user_surveys/survey-1997-04/


The study did NOT look at growth rates AT ALL. It advertised for people to
write in and describe themselves, and what is published are demographic
statistics based on about 12,000 entirely voluntary reports. What it showed
was that there is greater stability in the percentages of people in
different categories in these self-reports; e.g., gender and age
composition seem to be settling into a pattern, with less wild swings. What
these details, and the scores of others in the report, mean depends on how
representative people are who voluntarily answer such long questionaires
about themselves. The "30 million internet user" figure came from a survey
that can be found at the following URL: http://etrg.findsvp.com/index.html


What the survey actually says is that at the time it was conducted, there
were 31.3 million adult users in the U.S. This is of course not at all
inconsistent with a Nielsen figure of 50 million if the latter included
kids and perhaps Canadians. The survey authors summarized "remarkable
growth continues" and "55 million Americans are poised to become Internet
users."


-- Jonathan




******Remember  19 June in San Fran******


Look at http://www.eff.org/fillmore