IP: Re:Recent article in US News

[Dave Farber <farber () central cis upenn edu>]

To: Dave Farber <farber () central cis upenn edu>
Date: Mon, 06 May 96 09:25:00 -0700
From: Craig Partridge <craig () aland bbn com>




Hi Dave [for IP if useful]


>      They are all racing to invest in high speed networks to
>      keep ahead of demand which is growing 100% per year.


One key problem is that there's sometimes nothing to invest in -- the
higher speed equipment that ISPs and backbone providers need sometimes isn't
ready at the time it is needed.  (I recently heard one major equipment vendor
describe the past several years as a desperate scramble to produce new products
to keep up with the traffic growth curve).


We're looking at two gaps in the next few years.  The first one is likely
to occur sometime in middle to late 1997.  By then, a couple of ISPs believe
they may need to using OC-48c (2.4 Gbps links).  Problem is, we'll be very
lucky to see OC-48c products before 1998, in part because the necessary
chipsets won't be ready, which means equipment vendors can't build the
necessary interfaces (even though boxes capable of supporting OC-48c
interfaces will exist).


If we need OC-48c in 1997, that means we'll likely need to make the next
jump (to OC-192c, or 10 Gbps) around 1999.  And, so far, I'm seeing no
signs that OC-192c chipsets are even in the offing...


Craig