IP: Re: Spinning Japan Trip Away From Economics

[Dave Farber <farber () central cis upenn edu>]

Date: Fri, 19 Apr 1996 21:09:32 +0900
To: Dave Farber <farber () central cis upenn edu>
From: anderson () glocom ac jp (Stephen J. Anderson)
Subject: Spinning Japan Trip Away From Economics


I attended the early morning American Chamber of Commerce in Japan (ACCJ)
Session at the Hotel Okura--not only with Kantor, but with Christopher,
Mondale, and others.  I was not told that the session was off the record,
and was surprised when the press left.  My conclusion is that election year
politics meant that no chance of negative sound bites would be allowed to
darken this "Security" Summit.


At 2:28 AM 96.4.19, Tony Laszlo wrote:


> I hadn't heard about what the Post reported, but the ACCJ meeting was 
> aired on Japanese television (sorry, don't know the broadcasting channel).  


For the first few minutes, the "working press" took pictures of the event.
The cameras and reporters were then escorted from the room.  Security was
tight, since Cabinet-level and high-ranking officials were present:
Secretary of State Warren Christopher, Commerce's Secretary-designate Mickey
Kantor, National Economic Council Chair Laura Tyson, and Treasury's Deputy
Secretary Larry Summers were on the panel.  No explanation was given for
dismissing the press, except that the session was to be closed to the
"working press."


At 8:06 AM 96.4.19, John Tofflemire wrote:


> The ACCJ was informed that the meeting would be closed to the media less 
> than a day before it took place. It seems that the decision to close the 
> breakfast meeting to the media came as a big surprise to the ACCJ. The 
> extremely political nature of this summit and the desire to avoid any 
> unpleasant references to the realities US business actually face here seems 
> to have been of paramount concern to the administration's spin doctors. 


Perhaps so.  But the meeting itself was rather upbeat.  Ambassador Walter
Mondale chaired the meeting as "Acting President" of the ACCJ and Secretary
Christopher stated that he had always wanted to call Mondale "President."


> The Washington Post reported this morning (4/18) that a breakfast 
> sponsored by the American Chamber of Commerce in Japan for Mickey Kantor
and other
> visiting administration officials suddenly announced that the event would 
> be closed to the media.  According to ACCJ officials, the Post stated "the
> administration asked them to close the meeting when it learned that several
> Japan-based American analysts planned to delivery fairly pessimistic talks 
> on the state of Japanese trade and deregulation."   


Aha!  The presentations were realistic, but in no sense would I say they
were truly negative.


Following Mondale and the USG members' remarks, ACCJ President J.W. (Bill)
Beagles introduced presentations from Robert F. (Bob) Grondine on foreign
direct investment, Robert M. (Skipp) Orr, Jr. on deregulation, and Glen S.
Fukushima on trade agreements.  Note that all serve as members of the ACCJ
Board of Governors.  Glen in turn introduced presentations from John Stritch
of Texas Instruments on semiconductors and (someone may need to verify this)
Don Kanak of American Life Insurance Company.  Another reason to get
confirmation about the latter--the insurance presentation featured a
grapefruit and a raisin; the large grapefruit represents the closed
insurance sectors and the little raisin is the open sectors which will be
further deregulated.  The insurance skit closed with a demonstration that if
action was not taken soon, it did not take long to eat a raisin.


Besides such good theater, the event was a lovefest for the embassy and
Mondale combined with some substantive presentations and discussion.  Skipp
Orr offered two ACCJ policy recommendations (that I paraphrase) stating that
a) USG should encourage time periods for public comments in Japan on
Japanese government regulations, and b) domestic interests should be found
as allies for US trade initiatives.  Glen Fukushima also followed by
introducing the trade agreements project where the ACCJ is cataloging
US-Japan agreements for public use.  I do not think that it is a state
secret to say that the Administration members were open and appreciative of
these proposals, and agreed to meet with ACCJ members when they visit
Washington, DC, in June.


Actually, I have differing reactions to the sudden decision to keep the
press from the whole session.  On the one hand, this engineering of press
coverage is a heavy-handed and successful effort to keep economics off the
agenda and avoid any negative coverage about trade.  On the other hand,
discussion seemed to me to have more substance and better humor than if the
cameras had been there.  


In fact, there were golden moments for good press.  For example, Ambassador
Mondale noted the problems with FDI law or Kodak would not be solved as MITI
suggested by going in front of the Japanese Fair Trade
Commission--businesses might do just as well seeking relief from the Miami
Water Board.  Another example that would have made a good soundbite:  Mickey
Kantor agreed that Japan remains the key in the future as an economic
Gibraltar of Asia.   


Kantor was seconding an idea attributed to Ambassador Mondale, namely that
Japan is a "BAM" or "big aggregate market" that cannot be ignored.  This
idea is a direct challenge to Jeff Garten and his "big emerging markets"
that ignore Japan's leadership in technology and competitiveness, as well as
support the notion of "Japan passing" that bypasses the Japanese market.
Skipp Orr, and other attendees as well, emphasized that such notions are
misguided, and in answer to Laura Tyson's question about the extent of
Japanese recession, the common answer appeared to be that Japan remains
strong--Grondine called this the Stealth period for Japan.


As you can tell, I thought this ACCJ session and the Summit handlers were
impressive, but note the overwhelming shadows of electoral politics.  This
Administration economic team could all be gone in November (and who knows
whether Hashimoto and his YKK team will last).  And for the record such as
it is on the Net, I was surprised that such a session had to be "closed to
the working press" which surely just meant to keep it off TV.  


By the way, CNBC business cable TV carried a few minutes on the economic
issues.  ACCJ Executive Director Robert Neff got a minute on tape, and I did
five minutes live in an interview from Hong Kong.  I was not told that the
ACCJ session was "for background" or "off the record" and thus I decided
that I would also write this report.  I invite correction by my colleagues
(Skipp is out there, I am sure) or the ACCJ staff (I believe that they copy
and distribute DFS now that the newsletter encouraged so many erroneous
attempts at subscription that fill all of our boxes).  


The Summit is over with the President's Men and Women off to Russia.
Reminds me too about the old joke on the other meaning of GHQ during the
Occupation.  Of course, GHQ meant "General Headquarters" to all, but many
Japanese muttered that it also meant "Go Home Quick."


****************************************
Stephen J. Anderson
(Academic Opinions Alone)
Associate Professor
International University of Japan
****************************************