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IP: Working Paper on 1995 Baseline Internet Estimates
From: Dave Farber <farber () central cis upenn edu>
Date: Fri, 12 Apr 1996 10:06:33 -0400
Well worth reading!!! djf From: Donna Hoffman <hoffman () colette ogsm Vanderbilt Edu> Subject: Working Paper on 1995 Baseline Internet Estimates To: farber () central cis upenn edu Date: Fri, 12 Apr 1996 09:00:32 -0500 (CDT) Dave: Tom Novak, Bill Kalsbeek and I have recently completed the working paper, "Internet Use in the United States: 1995 Baseline Estimates and Preliminary Market Segments" www2000.ogsm.vanderbilt.edu/baseline/1995.Internet.estimates.html In a previous note we argued that the publicly released estimates of Internet use reported in the CommerceNet/Nielsen Internet Demographics Survey are inflated. We demonstrate in this paper that the Nielsen estimates suffer from two serious flaws which render the study conclusions invalid: 1) the weighted sample is not adequately adjusted to the population it is intended to represent, and 2) the estimates lack logical consistency in their definitions of what an Internet user is. The average inflation due to deficient weighting alone is 20.6%, the average inflation due to inconsistency alone is 13%, and the average total inflation in the original Nielsen estimates, when adjusted for the combined effect of these critical flaws, is 38%. As such, these estimates lack validity and are of little value to decision makers. We obtain new estimates by reweighting the raw data according to key demographic variables known to affect Internet usage; develop a set of estimates of Internet use based on conceptually valid and logically consistent definitions of Internet access and use for the United States Internet market; and derive a set of four Internet market segments, "Hard Core," "Regular," "Lapsed Regular," and "Infrequent," that provide important insights into the nature of the United States Internet experience and facilitate the study of its evolution over time. As the Internet is characterized by tremendous uncertainty, we submit a recommendation for all who must evaluate the results of Internet research. In essence, we argue that the time has come to insist on a higher standard for such research; a standard that will not only advance our understanding of the Internet experience, but contribute to the population's education of this important societal phenomenon. Best, DLH ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Professor Donna L. Hoffman hoffman () colette ogsm vanderbilt edu Owen Graduate School of Management 615-343-6904 voice Vanderbilt University 615-343-7177 fax Nashville, TN 37203 129.59.210.109 CU-SeeMe Project 2000: http://www2000.ogsm.vanderbilt.edu/ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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- IP: Working Paper on 1995 Baseline Internet Estimates Dave Farber (Apr 12)