Re: The biggest pipe dream of all....

[David Farber <farber () central cis upenn edu>]

> From a contributor


"Jim,


Excuse the pun but Malone's idea of one box and one wire is a pipe  
dream at best.


Just wait for the next round of mega mergers/announcements to begin  
starting with:


    directTV via satellite dish on your house or on your head (??) 




    wireless data and communications (like Metricom or RAM or CDPD)


    services from your local utility company (Entergy) 




    broadcast TV - digital no less


In my opinion, the so-called coming boom in home entertainment and  
interactive TV will be a huge bust unless the consumer money is there  
and convenience is there with things like video on-demand; however; I  
think Jim you've totally proven to me that wireless; even with lower  
bandwith carriers such as FM; work and work damn effectively for most  
business users.  I'm not betting yet on the coming boom of  
home-centered entertainment-maniacs all sitting on their butts  
enjoying spoon fed, 500 channels of pure shit programming. 




Will the average home-owner choose this "out of control" medium over  
other choices?  One of the things that really bugs me is that text on  
a TV looks like crap and not one of these bozos seems to get that  
fact.  I'll take my morning paper over the screen of a TV anyday  
unless you get me Display PostScript running at 400 dots per inch on  
a perfectly flat screen.  Lots of higher definition display  
technology is going to have to become available to convince me that  
other than video on-demand or teleconferencing will I really pay the  
extra bucks for BA-T box droppings.


I also wonder how much of TCI's currently controlled cable and feed  
plants are up to spec to handle high-bandwidth video on-demand as  
well as repeating frame relay equipment every other city block for  
two-way?  Something doesn't seem right here about how soon all of  
this is going to happen?  What ever became of the famous El Cerrito  
"video" for idiots experiment that was to determine if interactive  
services had a place in the home?


Let's ask Tom Hargadon what he thinks of all of this?"


and


"
Date: Thu, 14 Oct 1993 19:05:27 -0700
From: Tom Hargadon <foxhedge () well sf ca us>
Subject: Re:  The biggest pipe dream of all....


Actually a good set of questions. Scott
 
1- less than 15% of TCI's systems are truly 2 way active- if that
and then maybe for only some small part of the system. I have
been doing some consulting on getting k-14 schools onto the
internet using cable tv systems and that looks to be the general 
number. TCI may be lower- they do not have the most up to date
facilities or many big cities.
 
2-Cerritos interactive tv failed- only 5% ever did anything
 
3-it has not been shown that Americans are willing to spend any
higher percentage of their income on telecommunications and/or
entertainment- average family spends less than $100 /month. In
first instance, most of what interactive will do- will be to
substitute for present uses- VCR rental, some catalog purchases,
 
Video conferencing has some potential to add revenue-  especially
for businesses- which most folks seem to forget in all this rush
Also- multiuser games and the like. But this may just be a
substitution for toys.
 
4-Fully digital standards- progressive scan and not interlaced-
even for broadcast mode- may be coming quicker than you think.
The FCC Grand Alliance work is clearly being asked to think of
itself as under the NII which means death knell to an independent
interlaced interim standard.
 
5- it will be quite a while before broadcast TV stations actually
take the bull by the horn and become, as nick negroponte puts it,
little FCC;s =doing data and multimedia during week and HDTV on
weekends.
 
6- I am not very optimistic that the Arkanses energy company or
the los angeles based aerospace company ( hughes) will be the
real alternativee folks. i would bet more on the major german
publishing companies and the japanese consumer electronics folks
to deliver the hot new portable/wireless/ information rich/
connected stuff
 
7- there will not be one box control. too much portability
too much interconnecting.


8- the cable companies will have more than 50% ready for 
interactive in 5 years


9-most interactive is still remote control- no real upstream
anything. Very few have a clew.
clue
clawless"