Re: Im lovin google spam filter

[Valdis.Kletnieks () vt edu]

On Thu, 07 Apr 2011 12:49:34 EDT, michael.blanchard () emc com said:

> If we take 100 people on this list, have them all look in their backyards and
> report if there is any paper or plastic blowing around, I'll bet we can come up
> with a fairly high percentage of us that don't have any paper or plastic
> blowing around.  I'll further say that I'll bet the number would be within a
> standard deviation of 4% error.  So, if 96% of us don't have any paper or
> plastic blowing around in our yards, could we safely say that no-one litters?

No, you can safely say that the population average of litter-free backyards is
has a 70% chance between 92% and 100%, and about 95% chance of being
between 88% and 100%. (Yes, it's likely to be closer to a chi-squared curve
than a gaussian bell curve due to the constraint of one tail).

The problem is that careful analysis is needed - I'll make a prediction that yards
with chain link fences have a lot higher level of wind-born litter than unfenced
yards.  This of course impacts your analysis of litter sources.

And incidentally, Rick *has* done the "take 100 people" type analysis, which is why
he commented that (basically) the plural of anecdote isn't data.

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