funsec mailing list archives
Re: OK, here's a risk analysis question for you ...
From: Rich Kulawiec <rsk () gsp org>
Date: Fri, 14 May 2010 18:22:25 -0400
On Fri, May 14, 2010 at 12:27:07PM -0800, Rob, grandpa of Ryan, Trevor, Devon & Hannah wrote:
Hurricane season is three weeks away. The probability of a hurricane crossing the Gulf of Mexico is about 44%.
Hmmm. Gushing oil and gas. Hurricane. Dispersants. Lightning. What could possibly go wrong? ---Rsk p.s. I have noticed that BP has assiduously avoided making an accurate estimate of the actual volume per unit time. The press is still citing the long-obsolete, hastily-calculated 5000 bl/day figure, but it appears that multiple independent methods of estimating the rate all yield MUCH higher numbers, as in "an order of magnitude higher": Size of Oil Spill Underestimated, Scientists Say http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/14/us/14oil.html?hp Gulf Spill Could Be Much Worse Than Believed http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=126809525 BP / Gulf Oil Spill - How Big Is It? http://blog.skytruth.org/2010/05/bp-gulf-oil-spill-how-big-is-it.html As best as I can figure, the optimal way to conduct an on-site measurement would be to take a Pitot tube down with one of the submarines, stick it in the flow, time-average the pressure readings over 5 or 10 minutes, use that average to compute fluid flow velocity, and use that along with the pipe diameter to compute total flow/time. The total flow is part oil, part gas but I have to presume that they have a handle on the ratio because I don't think they would have drilled there otherwise. That ratio can then be used to calculate the oil flow/time. And repeating this every day would give some clue as to whether there's any significant trend. p.p.s. I've also noticed that apparently one of the plans to stop the flow involves blasting golf balls, shredded tires, etc. into it. I'd like to suggest instead that an equal mix of BP, Halliburton and Transocean executives might be a better choice, as it would spare us the spectacle of watching all three point fingers at each other in front of Congress. Oh. Too late. Dang. My bad. _______________________________________________ Fun and Misc security discussion for OT posts. https://linuxbox.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/funsec Note: funsec is a public and open mailing list.
Current thread:
- OK, here's a risk analysis question for you ... Rob, grandpa of Ryan, Trevor, Devon & Hannah (May 14)
- Re: OK, here's a risk analysis question for you ... B.K. DeLong (May 14)
- Re: OK, here's a risk analysis question for you ... Rich Kulawiec (May 14)
- Re: OK, here's a risk analysis question for you ... Dan Kaminsky (May 14)
- Re: OK, here's a risk analysis question for you ... Dave Paris (May 15)
- Re: OK, here's a risk analysis question for you ... Rich Kulawiec (May 17)
- Re: OK, here's a risk analysis question for you ... Dan Kaminsky (May 17)
- Re: OK, here's a risk analysis question for you ... Valdis . Kletnieks (May 17)
- Re: OK, here's a risk analysis question for you ... chris (May 17)
- Re: OK, here's a risk analysis question for you ... Dan Kaminsky (May 17)
- Re: OK, here's a risk analysis question for you ... Rich Kulawiec (May 19)
- Re: OK, here's a risk analysis question for you ... Jeffrey Walton (May 17)
- Re: OK, here's a risk analysis question for you ... Dan Kaminsky (May 14)