Re: [Dataloss] Data breach alerts linked to increased risk of ID theft

[Luther Martin <martin () voltage com>]

Another way to look at this data is by using Bayes' theorem. With T representing the event that a person suffers 
identity theft and N being the event that that a person receives a breach notification letter, if my reading of this is 
correct, we're given that P(T|N) = 0.195, P(T|not N) = 0.043, P(N) = 0.11 and P(not N) = 0.89. 

Using Bayes' theorem we have that P(not N|T) = P(T|not N) P(not N) / P(T).

> From the DOJ's data, it looks like P(T) = 0.0275, so this gives us P(not N|T) = 0.22.

In other words, if you're a victim of identity theft, there's probably about a 22 percent chance that you won't have 
received a breach notification letter. On the other hand, that also means that there's about a 78 percent chance that 
you will have received a breach notification letter. I'll bet that number's higher than it was a few years ago. 

> -----Original Message-----
> From: dataloss-discuss-bounces () datalossdb org [mailto:dataloss-discuss-
> bounces () datalossdb org] On Behalf Of Alton Franklin
> Sent: Monday, November 09, 2009 8:12 AM
> To: lyger; dataloss; dataloss-discuss
> Subject: Re: [Dataloss-discuss] [Dataloss] Data breach alerts linked to
> increased risk of ID theft
>
> I just love it when the "experts" speak... :-p
>
> Oh and, by the way, a study from an auto insurance research group has
> discovered that "high-speed impact of autos into concrete walls
> increases the chance of damage to the vehicles involved..." ;-)
>
> ~alton~
>
> Alton C. Franklin, CISM®, CISA®, CISSP®
>
>     "A positive attitude may not solve all your problems,
> but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort."
>                                     -- Herm Albright
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: dataloss-bounces () datalossdb org [mailto:dataloss-
> bounces () datalossdb org] On Behalf Of lyger
> Sent: Sunday, November 01, 2009 2:12 AM
> To: dataloss; dataloss-discuss
> Subject: [Dataloss] Data breach alerts linked to increased risk of ID
> theft
>
>
> http://www.scmagazineus.com/Data-breach-alerts-linked-to-increased-
> risk-of-ID-theft/article/156376/
>
> Consumers who have received a data breach notification letter are four
> times more likely than others to be the victim of identity theft,
> according to a survey released this week by Javelin Strategy and
> Research.
>
> Approximately 11 percent of U.S. consumers have received a data breach
> notification letter in the past 12 months with a third of the breaches
> involving Social Security numbers and 15 percent involving ATM PINs,
> according to Javelin's third annual survey of nearly 5,000 U.S.
> consumers, released Tuesday.
>
> Of those who have received a data breach notification letter in the
> past year, 19.5 percent said they were the victims of fraud associated
> with identity theft, compared to 4.3 percent who have not received a
> notification but were victimized.
>
> [...]
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Get business, compliance, IT and security staff on the same page with
CREDANT Technologies: The Shortcut Guide to Understanding Data Protection
from Four Critical Perspectives. The eBook begins with considerations
important to executives and business leaders.
http://www.credant.com/campaigns/ebook-chpt-one-web.php