Re: CVSS is the worst compression algorithm ever

[Thierry Zoller <thierry () zoller lu>]

CVSS needs to be embedded as a parameter/criteria in a Risk Evaluation;
it is not a risk indicator in itself and should not be used for patch
prioritisation in itself.

The importance of the asset (business process it supports, revenue
generated by adjacent processes etc.) .i.e the "criticality"[1] of an
asset needs to be taken into account when risk scoring and prioritising
remediation.

[1] Of course other factors like for example legal and regulatory
requirements (and possible fines) i.e. (Secondary losses) are amongst
other parameters to consider.

Thierry Zoller
http://blog.zoller.lu

Am 10.01.2019 um 17:02 schrieb Adrian Sanabria:
> Okay, we keep touching on this point, that CVSS isn't intended to score
> risk, just vulnerability severity. I'm having a hard time seeing what
> value there is in having a vulnerability score that doesn't reflect
> risk. What use does it have?
>
> Or is that exactly what we're saying? That since it doesn't reflect
> risk, it's essentially useless. If that's the conclusion, I'm on the
> same page.
>
> --Adrian 
>
> On Thu, Jan 10, 2019, 9:56 AM Wim Remes <wremes () gmail com
> <mailto:wremes () gmail com> wrote:
>
>     Hi,
>
>     Bruce really hits the nail on the head here. CVSS != Risk. To
>     broaden that discussion and not waste too many words, I’ll reference
>     FAIR (Factor Analysis of Information
>     Risk, https://www.fairinstitute.org/what-is-fair) to indicate where
>     “Vulnerability” contributes to an eventual quantitative risk valuation. 
>
>     I also always considered CVSS scoring to be qualitative instead of
>     quantitative and the numbers to be ordinal. That makes them fine for
>     ranking vulnerability, but horrible to perform math on (Jet Fuel x
>     Peanut Butter = Shiny — hi Alex Hutton!). 
>
>     That said, it all boils down to a point I’ve been rapping on about
>     for a long long time now. Organizations should not expect third
>     party penetration testers to make an accurate assessment of risk.
>     The data provided by a third party penetration tester should feed
>     into your risk management framework, that is also fed with
>     internally acquired business data, to produce (or adjust) a risk
>     valuation. It would be helpful if we, as consultants, wouldn’t
>     pretend that we (a) can come up with any form of credible risk score
>     during such assessments and (b) are delivering scoring that can help
>     with prioritization in a business context without additional effort
>     on the client side. On the other hand, clients that have a risk
>     management framework that can actually take vulnerability scores and
>     use them to generate risk scores should be clear in what they expect
>     from us. If you are asked, whether in an RFP or an SoW, to produce a
>     risk score for your findings at the very least you should be
>     returning a question for asset valuation and threat community
>     descriptions. 
>
>     Cheers,
>     Wim
>
>
>
> >     On 8 Jan 2019, at 18:33, Monroe, Bruce <bruce.monroe () intel com
> >     <mailto:bruce.monroe () intel com>> wrote:
> >
> >     Hi Dave,____
> >      ____
> >     I participate on the CVSS SIG being ran out of FIRST that is
> >     working on improvements to CVSS. So do a number of people out of
> >     CERT CC, NIST, MITRE along with a good representation of
> >     industry. A number of us provided feedback on this paper. CVSS is
> >     for scoring the severity of a vulnerability. CVSS does not = Risk.____
> >      ____
> >     My understanding is there is a number of government entities that
> >     believe CVSS does = Risk and are using it in a vacuum for that
> >     purpose. While the CVSS score is a single component - you also
> >     must look at how the vulnerable component is deployed, controls in
> >     place, value of asset, patching windows, likelihood of
> >     exploit,ect…there is a lot that goes into determining risk.____
> >      ____
> >     The fact that various USG entities is using CVSS wrong is an
> >     education issue imo. Yes CVSS has it’s issues with some
> >     of it’s elements being subjective eye of the beholder type items
> >     but that isn’t the reason for this paper…they’ve got USG people
> >     using it in a vacuum when it’s only a single element of
> >     determining your orgs risk due to a vulnerability. That isn’t a
> >     CVSS problem that’s a vulnerability management 101 problem.____
> >      ____
> >     Regards,____
> >     Bruce____
> >     Intel PSIRT____
> >      ____
> >     Opinions expressed are my own and may not reflect those of my
> >     employer.____
> >     *From:* Dailydave <dailydave-bounces () lists immunityinc com
> >     <mailto:dailydave-bounces () lists immunityinc com>> *On
> >     Behalf Of *Dave Aitel
> >     *Sent:* Tuesday, January 08, 2019 8:14 AM
> >     *To:* dailydave () lists immunityinc com
> >     <mailto:dailydave () lists immunityinc com>
> >     *Subject:* [Dailydave] CVSS is the worst compression algorithm
> >     ever____
> >     __ __
> >
> >     I wanted to take a few minutes and do a quick highlight of a paper
> >     from CMU-CERT which I think most people have missed out
> >     on: https://resources.sei.cmu.edu/asset_files/WhitePaper/2018_019_001_538372.pdf____
> >
> >     Towards Improving CVSS - resources.sei.cmu.edu
> >     <https://resources.sei.cmu.edu/asset_files/WhitePaper/2018_019_001_538372.pdf>____
> >
> >     resources.sei.cmu.edu <http://resources.sei.cmu.edu>____
> >
> >     SOFTWARE ENGINEERING INSTITUTE | CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY
> >     REV-03.18.2016.0 Distribution Statement A: Approved for Public
> >     Release; Distribution Is Unlimited TOWARDS IMPROVING CVSS____
> >
> >     It's almost as funny a read as their previous best work on how
> >     "clientless HTTPS VPNs are insanely dumb
> >     <https://www.kb.cert.org/vuls/id/261869/> what were you thinking
> >     omg?" ____
> >     __ __
> >     They use a ton of big words in the paper to call CVSS out and give
> >     it a shellacking. Like most of you, we have extensive use of CVSS
> >     in our consulting practice and I've seen this stuff first hand.
> >     CVSS is of course just a buggy compression algorithm for taking
> >     complex qualitative data and then putting it on a number line. The
> >     paper has three angles here: ____
> >
> >      1. Qualitative mappings into quantitative numbers are a silly
> >         thing to do, like people trying to do "social science" by
> >         using SurveyMonkey.____
> >      2. We're pretty sure that the compression algorithm is not, in
> >         fact, putting higher risk items as bigger numbers, which is
> >         the whole point of the thing.  ____
> >      3. Nobody is applying this in any sort of consistent way (which
> >         is probably impossible) which is ALSO the whole point of the
> >         thing.____
> >
> >     __ __
> >     It's fine to have a lossy compression algorithm that emphasizes
> >     certain aspects of the input signal over others, of course, but an
> >     additional CERT/CC critique is we have no reason to think CVSS
> >     does this in any useful way. ____
> >
> >     __ __
> >
> >     There's definitely people in the CVSS process (who I will avoid
> >     calling out by name) who think ANY quantization is good. But read
> >     the paper and decide for yourself - because these are probably
> >     serious issues that are turning your entire risk org into a
> >     Garbage-In-Garbage-Out org...____
> >
> >     __ __
> >
> >     -dave____
> >
> >     __ __
> >
> >     _______________________________________________
> >     Dailydave mailing list
> >     Dailydave () lists immunityinc com
> >     <mailto:Dailydave () lists immunityinc com>
> >     https://lists.immunityinc.com/mailman/listinfo/dailydave
>
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